20k can wait

US equity indexes closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2258. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled -4.6% @ 12.20. Near term outlook offers a basic retrace to sp'2232/31, at best... the bears might reach 2205/2190s.. before the next big surge to the 2300s and Dow 20k.


spdaily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

The mainstream have been (understandably) looking forward to Dow breaking the giant psy' level of 20k. The Dow came real close on Wednesday afternoon, with a peak of 19966.

Today opened a little higher, but there was increasing weakness into the afternoon, as there are just very few willing to buy at these levels, or ahead of the weekend.

Right now, Dow 20k looks far more likely after the Christmas holiday break.. than before.
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*Bonus chart, UK, monthly

With just nine trading days left of the year, my home market of the UK is battling to break AND hold above multi-decade resistance of 7k. A Dec', or Jan' close in the 7000s would be extremely bullish, and offer further basic upside to 8k by late spring/early summer 2017.

I realise many of you (those in the USA) don't care about other world markets, but they can be used as indirect indicators of where the US market might be headed in the months, and even years ahead.
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Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm, and will detail the US weekly indexes

The increasingly regal USD

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2262 (intra high 2272). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% @ 12.79. Near term outlook continues to offer further cooling to at least 2231.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A day of moderate gains, and its notable that today's daily candle was spiky... much like the previous two. Equity bears just need a break under the fed day low of sp'2248 to open the door to a very basic fib' retrace to 2231.

VIX remains very subdued, but if sp'2230s, that will likely equate to the 14/15s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year.
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Meanwhile.. in FIAT land...

USD, monthly

A sig' net daily gain of 1.4%, breaking into the DXY 103s, for the first time since Dec'2002, a rather considerable 14 years ago. Clearly, a higher dollar puts downward pressure on $ denominated asset classes. We're especially seeing that in the precious metals. For the moment, the equity market just doesn't care... but eventually it will have to.

Goodnight from London

Short term retrace

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -18pts @ 2253. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +3.7% @ 13.19. Near term outlook offers weakness into this Friday's quad-opex, at least to 2230.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was the last big trading event of 2016. Not surprisingly, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a target range of 0.5-0.75%.

The market was particularly twitchy as Yellen spoke for almost an hour. Despite a little bounce around 3.30pm.. the market saw renewed weakness into the close.

On balance, a move to the 2230s looks a given.. and that will likely equate to VIX 14/15s. The only issue is whether a more significant retrace to around the 2200 threshold... but that is surely out of range until early next week.
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Meanwhile..  on clown finance TV...

Talk of Dow 40k could be seen as 'crazy talk', but so was Dow 20k just 5 weeks ago. As ever... we take this one day at a time... but from a grand perspective... we know where we're broadly headed, right?

Goodnight from London