The increasingly regal USD

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2262 (intra high 2272). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. VIX settled -3.0% @ 12.79. Near term outlook continues to offer further cooling to at least 2231.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A day of moderate gains, and its notable that today's daily candle was spiky... much like the previous two. Equity bears just need a break under the fed day low of sp'2248 to open the door to a very basic fib' retrace to 2231.

VIX remains very subdued, but if sp'2230s, that will likely equate to the 14/15s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of the year.
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Meanwhile.. in FIAT land...

USD, monthly

A sig' net daily gain of 1.4%, breaking into the DXY 103s, for the first time since Dec'2002, a rather considerable 14 years ago. Clearly, a higher dollar puts downward pressure on $ denominated asset classes. We're especially seeing that in the precious metals. For the moment, the equity market just doesn't care... but eventually it will have to.

Goodnight from London

Short term retrace

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -18pts @ 2253. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.3% respectively. VIX settled +3.7% @ 13.19. Near term outlook offers weakness into this Friday's quad-opex, at least to 2230.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was the last big trading event of 2016. Not surprisingly, the fed raised rates by 25bps to a target range of 0.5-0.75%.

The market was particularly twitchy as Yellen spoke for almost an hour. Despite a little bounce around 3.30pm.. the market saw renewed weakness into the close.

On balance, a move to the 2230s looks a given.. and that will likely equate to VIX 14/15s. The only issue is whether a more significant retrace to around the 2200 threshold... but that is surely out of range until early next week.
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Meanwhile..  on clown finance TV...

Talk of Dow 40k could be seen as 'crazy talk', but so was Dow 20k just 5 weeks ago. As ever... we take this one day at a time... but from a grand perspective... we know where we're broadly headed, right?

Goodnight from London

The Mighty Dow

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +14pts @ 2271. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and u/c respectively. VIX settled +0.6 @ 12.72. Wednesday will see the Fed raise rates, and a 'sell the news' event remains a threat.. even though higher rates are now (ironically) seen as a good thing by the mainstream.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was actually more of a mixed day in market land than most will have realised. Whilst the headline indexes - Dow, sp, NYSE comp', and Nasdaq comp', all broke new historic highs, there was notable weakness in the two leaders - Trans/R2K.

VIX remains a little kooky, as it is usually rising whenever equities are rising, and cools when equities fall! 

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Dow, monthly

Note how the upper bollinger is at 19500, we're trading over 400pts above it, which is exceptionally unusual. Does anyone think we'll be trading under 19k any time soon? The key 10MA - something I regularly drone on about, will only be in the 18500s in January. A break below that looks out of range for many months.

Goodnight from London