Is Mr Inflation lurking?

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +11pts @ 2171, (intra low 2151). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively. VIX settled -5.4% @ 12.39. Near term outlook offers further upside into the Sept'/Q3 close.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

It was a rather interesting day in market land. There was a fair amount of minor chop in the morning, but then a significant swing higher in the afternoon, partly inspired by a surge in oil prices.

VIX cooled for a second consecutive day, unable to even hold the 13s. Despite the looming election, the key 20 threshold looks a stretch.
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Inflating commodities

I could highlight 20-30 charts, but the following two will have to suffice for today...


Copper, monthly

Copper has built a strong floor since the Jan' low of $1.94. A move >$2.40 in Oct/Nov', would break the downward trend that stretches back to 2011. First target would then be the 2.80/3.00 zone. Interestingly, the Russian equity market is similar in price structure, and has recently broken out.


sp'500 vs CRB, weekly, 10yr

Since the Jan'19th low of 154.85, the CRB has been battling upward. Its now formed what is likely the first higher low of 176.67. A push to the 210/230 zone before year end looks viable. 

If commodities do climb into next year, it bodes for far higher equity levels, not just for the US market, but across the world.

*I will highlight the world markets this weekend.. and it remains the most important post I provide each month.

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Its almost the end of the month and quarter. If you like my posts, then support me, which will give you access to my continuing intraday posts. You know where to subscribe!

Goodnight from London

Post debate rebound

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +13pts @ 2159 (intra low 2141). The two leaders - Trans/R2k, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.4% respectively. VIX settled -9.7% @ 13.10. Near term outlook offers broad upside into end month, and pushing into Q4.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

With the first presidential debate out of the way, it was arguably a case of relief in equity land. This was especially reflected in the VIX which was crushed lower.. even seeing an intraday low in the 12s. Single digit VIX remains viable... not least if the market can broadly rally to the sp'2220s by mid October.

I am well aware a fair number of you are seeking the 2200s, only for the market to then unravel.. with some kinda of crashy decline before year end.

Yes, there are MANY problems, not least the financial monster that is Deutsche bank, along with all manner of simmering geo-political unrest. For now though, things continue to keep on ticking along.
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Bonus chart... Germany, monthly

With just three trading days left of the month/quarter, its notable that the powerhouse of the EU - Germany, is currently net lower by -2.2%. It won't be easy to see that fully reverse that across just three days. Most other world markets are moderately mixed.

For the 'five wave' believers, the German DAX has the cleanest price structure of any world market out there. In theory, if you like the idea that the next bear market will be around 50% - with 8K as new long term support, that'll require DAX 15/16k.. which would likely take until 2018 to reach. Dwell on that.

Goodnight from London

Weakness to start the week

US equities closed broadly weak, sp -18pts @ 2146. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -1.1% respectively. VIX settled +18.0% @ 14.50. Near term outlook offers renewed upside to the 2180/90s before end month.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So, some weakness to begin the week. Yet... last week began weak, only to result in most indexes building sig' net weekly gains.

For now, I just can't take seriously any such weakness. Things only turn a little bearish if the recent low of 2119 is taken out, and that doesn't look likely this week.

As for VIX, a very sig' net daily gain of 18%, but that only takes the VIX to the mid 14s. The key 20 threshold looks as distant as it usually does.


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Eyes on the USD, weekly2

A slightly cooler dollar to start the week. Any move into the DXY 94s would be somewhat interesting. Those equity bears seeking a massive correction before year end, really ought to be seeking the DXY 97/98s... with an eventual breakout >100.

I guess I should conclude today by saying.... 'enjoy the show' at 9pm EST.

Goodnight from London