US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +6pts @ 2163. The two
leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. VIX settled -3.8% @ 12.86. Near
term outlook offers the sp'2130s with VIX 15s, before renewed upside
toward the 2200s.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
So, moderate daily gains, but price structure is offering a bear flag (better seen on the smaller 60/15min cycles)... and that does strongly bode for renewed downside across Thurs/Friday.
A brief foray to the 2130s - with VIX 15s, before the weekend looks highly probable.
US equity indexes closed broadly weak for the first time since late
June, sp -13pts @ 2157. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by a
significant -2.1% and -1.4% respectively. VIX settled +7.5% @ 13.37. Near term outlook offers a
further 1-2% of equity downside, before a highly probable rebound.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
The past three weeks have been exceptionally tedious, and today saw (make up your own reason for what the trigger/excuse was) the first significant weakness since June 27th. Even the VIX managed a daily close in the low teens.
A retrace to back test the breakout level of the sp'2130s was always a threat, and it would seem we'll see the 2130s - with VIX 15s, within the next few days.
What should be clear though, underlying price pressure is even more bullish than June/July... and it would still seem we'll push for the sp'2200s by late Aug/early September.
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Oil isn't helping
WTIC, weekly
A daily close in the mid $39s, with next support - the April low of $35.24. The big psy' level of $50 is now 25% to the upside, and is clearly out of range until at least September. There is a viable inverse H/S formation - from last Aug' low of the $37s. If we find support in the $37s.. any price action back >$40 would offer credence to that theory. The subsequent upside target would then be $60, which would be a rather monstrous 62% of upside.
In any case, Oil is an extremely important commodity to keep in mind.
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US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -2pts @ 2170 (intra high
2178). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.1%
respectively. VIX settled +4.8% @ 12.44. Mid term outlook offers the sp'2225/50 zone by mid/late
September.
sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
A relatively subdued day in equity land, but considering the ongoing significant weakness in oil, equities are holding together very well.
VIX saw a moderate gain, at best the 15-17s - with Jackson Hole (Aug 26th), the key 20 threshold looks out of range until at least the latter half of September.
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The sp'500 lead the way higher in July, with the Dow quickly following, the Nasdaq is set to follow...
Nasdaq comp', monthly2, 20yr
A break above the July 2015 high of 5231 looks due this month.. or certainly no later than September. A monthly close in the 5300s should give clarity that we'll see the 6000s by next spring.
I can't be bearish unless a monthly close under the June low, which is a long way down in the 4500s.
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I shall end today by highlighting an interview that appeared this past weekend. Its by Hunter, with Denniger.
The first half is concerned with societal issues, with the latter half mostly financial. Whether you like Denniger or not, the issues raised merit serious consideration. I did note a complete absense of the fact that the central banks could push to create hyper-inflation, which would solve the financial-exponent problems.
