New highs are due

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +3pts @ 2170 (intra low 2159). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. VIX settled -0.9% @ 12.72. Near term outlook offers a renewed push higher into the 2180/90s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Today was day'11 of a trading range that spans just 20pts (2175/55).. a mere 0.9%.

VIX is reflecting a market that is arguably 'consolidating in time', after a post BREXIT hyper ramp from sp'1991 to 2175.
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Update from Riley




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Another push higher

With just one trading day left of July, it is now a certainty that the sp'500 will be settling near/at new historic highs. Whether >2175 is exceeded tomorrow or in August... it really makes no difference. Further, it should be clear that broader upside into mid/late September seems highly probable.

The next threat will be a rate hike at the FOMC of Sept'21st, but considering other central banks are set to cut rates/increase QE...  Fed tightening remains extremely unlikely.

I can't be bearish unless a monthly close under the monthly 10MA.. and that is currently in the sp'2050s.

Goodnight from London

No change, no surprise

US equities closed significantly mixed, sp -2pts @ 2166 (intra low 2159). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -1.5% and +0.2% respectively. VIX settled -1.7% @ 12.83. Near term outlook offers the sp'2180/90s for the July close.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

So the Fed decided to leave int' rates unchanged in a range of 25/50bps. The next FOMC is not until Sept'21st, and even if the next two sets of monthly jobs data come in good, the Fed will remain reluctant to raise as the BoE, ECB, and even BoJ, might have cut rates.
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July is set for very significant gains

sp'monthly

The sp' is set for a fifth consecutive net monthly gain, and that is about as bullish as it gets. As of next Monday, we're set for a bullish MACD cross (aka.. MARCON 7), which will officially put the market back into 100% bullish mode.

Yes there are all manner of financial and geo-political 'issues' that could be used to excite the equity bears about possible future declines, but... ongoing price action offers absolutely nothing.

Goodnight from London

Awaiting excuses 447-449

US equities indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +0.7pts @ 2169. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.6% respectively. VIX settled +1.4% @ 13.05. Near term outlook threatens (at best) a test of the 2130s, but regardless... the sp'2200s remain due.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

A pretty subdued day in market land. It was notable that the two leaders were pushing higher, with the Transports provisionally confirming price structure of a bull flag.

VIX remains broadly subdued, with the key 20 threshold likely out of range until at least mid/late September.

Cyclically speaking, equity bears could argue for a break lower tomorrow afternoon, and into month end/early August. Yet, the past nine trading days have likely just been 'consolidation across time', before the next push higher in August.


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WTIC weekly

A fourth consecutive net daily decline, -0.5% @ $42.92. Bearish chatter continues to increase, with talk of the mid $30s. Yet... equity prices are far more suggestive that oil prices will 'somehow' settle the year closer to $60 than $40.. nevermind the $30s.
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447-449

The FOMC will issue a press release Wed' @ 2pm, there will not be a Yellen press conf'. There is higher probability of a 10km wide asteroid landing in the Pacific ocean tomorrow afternoon than the US fed raising rates.

What will excuses 447, 448, and 449 be, to justifiy not raising rates? I'm sure most of you can think of as many as I can.

As things are, the next realistic chance of the Fed raising rates - by a monstrous 25bps to a target range of 50/75bps, will be the Dec'14 meeting. and that is twenty weeks away. For others - notably UK savers, rates are set to be cut, with business people being issued with threats of possible charges being implemented by year end.

Clearly, the world economy just gets better with each day, and that is why we need rates to remain at emergency levels.

Is it time for the 100 meter hurdles in Rio yet?

Goodnight from London