Breaking out into space?

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +11pts @ 2163 (intra high 2168). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 0.1% respectively. The VIX settled -1.7% @ 12.82. Regardless of any chop/cooling ahead of the July 27th FOMC announcement, the sp'2200s look a given.


sp'daily

VIX'daily

Summary

What can be said, other than it was just another day for the equity bulls.

With each push higher, the Monday breakout in the sp'500, is becoming ever more solidified.

Even if you are of the view that the market is going to be vulnerable to some kind of autumnal crash, today is merely day'4 of the break. On any fair basis, the US market looks set for at least a few months of broad upside to the sp'2200s, if not the 2300s.


Breaking out into space?

The breakout above sp'2134 is significant. Those calling it a fake move on Monday, are already starting to question themselves as the Dow has followed, with the Nasdaq due in Aug/September.

Considering most central banks - notably the BoJ, ECB, and BoE, are set to cut rates/spool up the printers, the US, and other world equity markets look set for broad summer upside.


The following is somewhat stomach churning to watch.... much like this market.



yours... would prefer an M1 Abrams tank to a MiG-29

Goodnight from London

Grey skies for the equity bears

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +0.3pts @ 2152 (new historic high 2156). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a touch of opex weak-chop, with the sp'2200s highly probable in Aug/Sept.


sp'daily

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add, a new historic high of sp'2156, with Dow 18390.

The sp'2200s look due, with Dow 18500/600s into September.
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This is the ongoing mantra from 'some'.

-The market won't break >2134  (yes, yours truly was on that train until last Thurs/Friday)
-The market has broken >2134, but it won't last.. it'll quickly rollover
-Okay, the market has broken >2134.. and is now holding the 2150s, but it'll still cool lower into August, and maybe crash in the autumn.


I can imagine given another month or two we'll have...

-Err... so we're in the sp'2200s, but its not sustainable, the market is still vulnerable to a massive crash

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Its perhaps obvious to say, but the new historic highs are NOT bearish, and for those that disagree.. go stare at the following for an hour...

There are no blue skies in sight for the bears. We have seen the sp'500 lead the way higher. The Dow has followed. The Nasdaq is next in line (>5231).

There seems zero point in launching any short-side positions unless there is a break of rising trend - which for the sp' will be around 2040 in early August.

How high could the market climb in this multi-month wave - from the Jan/Feb' low (confirmed via the new historic highs) ? I'll look at that another day.

In any case... if you're still bearish, maybe go stare at the above picture for another hour. There is no sunshine there for you.

Goodnight from London
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The Dow follows the S&P

US equities closed broadly higher for the eighth day of the past ten, sp +14pts @ 2152 (intra high 2155). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.2% and 1.3% respectively. Outlook is bullish (at least) into early September.


Dow, monthly

sp'daily

Summary

So, the Dow has followed the sp'500, with a new historic high of 18371. Next resistance are the 18600/700s.

Any price action in the 19000s would threaten extreme 'irrational exhuberance' of 25/26k, which likely take until spring 2018.

Regardless of what you might think of that, two new historic highs can't be seen as bearish, right?
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An update on China, monthly

A monthly close above the 10MA in the 3100s, should bode for summer/autumnal upside to 4k, with 4400/500s viable by year end. It will be interesting to see if the PBOC decide to loosen monetary policy some more, or perhaps to depreciate their currency ahead of a Trump presidency.

On that thought...........

Goodnight from London
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Video update from Walker



Almost a full hour of chart chatter. As ever, make of that, what you will.