With equities closing broadly higher, the VIX ended the week in cooling mode, settling -6.9% @ 15.20. Across the week, the VIX saw a minor net weekly gain of 1.1%. Broadly, volatility remains due to increase into the summer.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
VIX'weekly
Summary
Broadly, despite the sp'500 declining from 2111 to a new multi-month low of 2025, the VIX remains broadly subdued, stuck in the mid/low teens.
The bigger weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to see a bullish cross before end month... and that does bode for a powerful increase in volatility into June.
--
more later... on the indexes
Friday, 20 May 2016
Closing Brief
US equities closed broadly higher, sp +12pts @ 2052 (intra high 2058). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.1% and 1.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers another rollover, with the recent low of 2025 set to be tested. If that fails to hold... open air to 2000/1990s.. if not the H/S target of 1970/60s.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a little cooling to 2048.. as news of a White House 'lawn incident' gave the algo-bots an excuse for a nano scale brief drop.
The hourly 10MA notably held.
--
.. and thus concludes another week.
Certainly, it was not the bearish end that some (yours truly included) were hoping for, but then... opex is often a frustrating day for equity bears.
In any case... equity bears did achieve a lower high this week.. and a lower low.
It has been somewhat bemusing to see some on clown finance TV talk about how the market is back above sp'2040... so.. 'everything is fine again'. I'd imagine it'll be the same next week if we break 2025... cool to 2000/1990s. and then eventually bounce to the 2030s.
-
With just six trading days left of May, my attention is already shifting to how the month will settle. A close back under the monthly 10MA (currently 2014)... would really offer a clue that June will see a move to the low 1900s.. if not the mid 1800s.
Regardless... thanks for the comments/emails this week
Have a good weekend
--
the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: a little cooling to 2048.. as news of a White House 'lawn incident' gave the algo-bots an excuse for a nano scale brief drop.
The hourly 10MA notably held.
--
.. and thus concludes another week.
Certainly, it was not the bearish end that some (yours truly included) were hoping for, but then... opex is often a frustrating day for equity bears.
In any case... equity bears did achieve a lower high this week.. and a lower low.
It has been somewhat bemusing to see some on clown finance TV talk about how the market is back above sp'2040... so.. 'everything is fine again'. I'd imagine it'll be the same next week if we break 2025... cool to 2000/1990s. and then eventually bounce to the 2030s.
-
With just six trading days left of May, my attention is already shifting to how the month will settle. A close back under the monthly 10MA (currently 2014)... would really offer a clue that June will see a move to the low 1900s.. if not the mid 1800s.
Regardless... thanks for the comments/emails this week
Have a good weekend
--
the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week
3pm update - 2050 for the opex close?
US equities remain moderately higher, and considering its opex... with resistance at 2060, the market makers will be inclined to attempt to pin the SPY ETF to 205... equiv' to sp'2050. With another equity bounce, the VIX is naturally subdued in the 15s.
sp'weekly1b
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX sitting on rising trend... equity bears could do with a weekly close >15.50.
--
Well, its been another week of swings.. and we look set to close around sp'2050.. with VIX 15s.
Sure, bulls can argue they've (probably) managed a net weekly gain... breaking the downward run.
Yet.. bears achieved a lower high.. and a lower low, breaking the key lows of 2040/39 and (arguably, even more important... 2033).
Clearly, next week the target will be <2025... and then 2000/1990s.. if not the actual H/S target of 1970/60s.
--
back at the close
sp'weekly1b
VIX'60min
Summary
*VIX sitting on rising trend... equity bears could do with a weekly close >15.50.
--
Well, its been another week of swings.. and we look set to close around sp'2050.. with VIX 15s.
Sure, bulls can argue they've (probably) managed a net weekly gain... breaking the downward run.
Yet.. bears achieved a lower high.. and a lower low, breaking the key lows of 2040/39 and (arguably, even more important... 2033).
Clearly, next week the target will be <2025... and then 2000/1990s.. if not the actual H/S target of 1970/60s.
--
back at the close
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