With US equity indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX managed the fifth net daily gain of the past seven trading days (intra high 17.65), settling +2.4% @ 16.33. Near term outlook offers at least the 19/21 zone, with the sp'2000/1990s. If sp'1970/60s... a very brief spike into the 24/27 zone is viable.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to add... VIX is still relatively subdued.. and we're yet to see any kind of powerful upside.
It seems to be a case of whether we max out around the key 20 threshold... or a brief powerful spike to 24/27.. but then rapidly cooling.
Hyper upside to the 30s... or even higher is on the menu for June.
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US equities closed moderately lower, sp -7pts @ 2040 (intra low 2025). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside to at least the 2000/1990s. A H/S formation (with the neckline now broken) is suggestive of more dynamic action to the 1970/60s.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: choppy, but leaning higher, as (understandably) some equity bears are cautious about the Friday opex.
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... and another day at the twisted casino comes to a close.
Clearly... the market is trying to price in a June rate hike.. not that I believe we'll get one anyway.
Further downside to the giant psy' level of 2K looks highly probable. However, the price structure is pretty clean, and the H/S offers the 1970/60s... before end month.
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US equities remain broadly lower, but well above the earlier low of sp'2025. USD is set for a third consecutive daily gain.. as the mainstream continue to believe a rate hike is on the menu at the June FOMC... which will NOT be the case... as a deeply negative BREXIT vote looms.
sp'daily5b
VIX'daily3
Summary
*VIX set for the fifth daily gain of last seven days.
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So.. yes.. many bears spooked by the usual intraday bounces.
Its likely merely a case of whether we close in the sp'2030s.. or 20s. A test of the 200dma looks due tomorrow.. or more viable.. after opex is out of way. **it is HIGHLY notable that the Trans, R2K, and Nasdaq are already sustainably trading under their respective 200dma.
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As for the beast...
'Sicario' remains one of the most tense and moody movies in recent years. If you've not seen it.... go find it!
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3.24pm... well, I guess you could say we've had our back test of the broken floor of 2039/40.
