VIX cools into the close

With US equity indexes breaking a new cycle high of sp'2104, the VIX broke to 12.98 - the lowest level since Oct'2015. There was an intra bounce to declining trend/resistance (intra high 13.88)... but then settling -0.8% @ 13.24.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, a sixth consecutive net daily decline for the VIX.

The daily candle was of the hollow red type, and offers the mild threat of a key mid term floor.

What does seem clear... sustained action above the key 20 threshold looks out of range for the remainder of April, and probably until the latter half of May.

VIX 30/40s look out of range until June.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +6pts @ 2100 (new cycle high 2104). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled 1.3% and 0.1% respectively. Near term outlook offers a break of short term rising trend/support, a move <2090 will open up the gap zone 2065/61 by the Friday close.


sp'60min

Summary

closing hour action: minor chop around the sp'2100 threshold.
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Well, it was not the kind of weakness (even moderate) that I was seeking.. but then, with new cycle highs, it was always going to be another day for the equity bulls.

To me, its merely a case of whether we can see some weakness across the next 3 days... and attain a weekly close in the 2060s.

If that is the case.. then there is still a chance for the bears to close the month on a somewhat negative note.

yours... (overly?) resilient.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities are set for increasing weakness, although a sub sp'2090 Tuesday close looks out of range. VIX remains relatively subdued, but somewhat above the early low of 12.98. With the USD -0.5% in the DXY 93.90s, the metals are strong, Gold +$20, with Silver +4.5%.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*note the VIX hourly 12pm candle..  hitting declining trend/resistance.. and then cooling.
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Cyclically... we're set for an equity bearish MACD cross in the closing hour... so.. we 'should' fall.

.. in this market though... even hopes of a fractional net daily decline... are often denied.
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notable strength, miners: GDX +5.6%
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back at the close!