VIX back in cooling mode

With equities rebounding back to the sp'2060s, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -8.7% @ 14.85. Near term outlook is extremely borderline, with threat of sp>2075.. and if so.. then VIX 13/12s, otherwise... briefly..17/18s.. with sp'2020/10s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, the short term upward trend has been broken.

Underlying daily MACD (blue bar histogram) is starting to tick lower. There is clear threat of a move >sp'2075.. and VIX 13/12s.

*I remain long VIX from the mid 14s.. and the ongoing moderate chop is increasingly frustrating.

--
more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +19pts @ 2061 (intra low 2039). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.8% and 1.0% respectively. Near term outlook is extremely borderline, as there is threat of a break above the key high of 2075. Best case near term downside is the 2025/15 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a reaction-turn from a new intra high of 2065 - with VIX 14.84
--

So... opening gains, a swing lower to 2039.. but then the bloody oil headline resulted in a swift surge back upward, with algo-bot melt across much of the afternoon.

A really annoying day... but effectively, we're just stuck within a relatively narrow range of 2075-2020s.
--

yours truly remains short.. and (to my own surprise) reasonably content.

(the fact I'm not using margin sure helps me sleep)

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - still building gains

US equity indexes continue to grind upward, above soft resistance of sp'2060, with the VIX on the edge of losing the 15s. USD remains broadly flat around the DXY 94.00 threshold. Metals are mixed, Gold u/c, whilst Silver +1.6%. Oil has built powerful gains of 4%.. back into the $42s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A very annoying day...and unlike yesterday afternoon, there is currently zero sign of a turn/renewed cooling.

The 2075 high is not looking so secure anymore.

If the market likes the next set of inventory reports... the bears are going to get washed out.... without even seeing a basic retrace to the 2020/10s.
-

notable movers...

CHK +34%
SDRL +26%

.. both stocks remain utterly smashed though... and SDRL is ironically barely half of the price it was from the most recent hyper ramp.

--
back at the close