Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +17pts at 2055 (intra low 2028). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 2.7% respectively. Near term outlook increasingly threatens a turn, with first key target of the 50dma.. which will be in the 1960s across early April.


sp'daily5

Nasdaq comp'

Summary

sp'500: it is notable that the upper daily bollinger is at 2069. A break above the most recent 'marginally lower high' of 2081 looks out of range.

Nasdaq: the key 4900 threshold is a mere 1.0% away.. with the 200dma lurking. Sustained price action >4900 looks extremely difficult.
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Closing update from Mr R.



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a little more later...

VIX cools back to the 13s

With US equity indexes closing broadly higher, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -9.3% @ 13.82. Cyclically, equities are due a sig' retrace of the giant ramp from sp'1810 to the 2050s. VIX remains due to climb to the 18/20 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Today's equity rally - and associated VIX cooling, was clearly in large part due to further mixed messages from Fed chair Yellen.

For now, the sp'2056 high continues to hold, along with the VIX low of 13.75.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +17pts at 2055 (intra low 2028). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 2.7% respectively. Near term outlook increasingly threatens a turn, with first key target of the 50dma.. which will be in the 1960s across early April.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a far amount of micro chop, with a new intra high of 2055.. but notably under last week's high of 2056.60.
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A pretty interesting day.

Yellen sure gave a truck load of conflicting and mixed comments day. The usual fedspeak of course, trying to appear as though things are fine, whilst at the same time issueing threats of further easing.

Arguably, today was the bull maniacs last decent chance to break >2056.

.. I realise we could gap right above that overnight/tomorrow morning.... but cyclically... we're set to cool from here.

*yours truly holds short via SPY and long VIX.

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more later... on the VIX