VIX cools back to the 13s

With US equity indexes closing broadly higher, the VIX was naturally back in cooling mode, settling -9.3% @ 13.82. Cyclically, equities are due a sig' retrace of the giant ramp from sp'1810 to the 2050s. VIX remains due to climb to the 18/20 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Today's equity rally - and associated VIX cooling, was clearly in large part due to further mixed messages from Fed chair Yellen.

For now, the sp'2056 high continues to hold, along with the VIX low of 13.75.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly higher, sp +17pts at 2055 (intra low 2028). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.2% and 2.7% respectively. Near term outlook increasingly threatens a turn, with first key target of the 50dma.. which will be in the 1960s across early April.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a far amount of micro chop, with a new intra high of 2055.. but notably under last week's high of 2056.60.
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A pretty interesting day.

Yellen sure gave a truck load of conflicting and mixed comments day. The usual fedspeak of course, trying to appear as though things are fine, whilst at the same time issueing threats of further easing.

Arguably, today was the bull maniacs last decent chance to break >2056.

.. I realise we could gap right above that overnight/tomorrow morning.... but cyclically... we're set to cool from here.

*yours truly holds short via SPY and long VIX.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - awaiting a turn

US equities are so far holding the Yellen bounce gains, but cyclically, are increasingly vulnerable to cooling across the remaining two days of the month. VIX has been crushed to the low 14s, although notably above the recent double low of 13.75. USD is certainly helping oil/equities.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

We've come pretty close to breaking the 2056 high...   and if the equity bulls can't break it in the closing hour/early tomorrow... then it'll be a marginal double top.... with some interesting downside into end month.
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A very valid and serious question I'd pose to any of the bull maniacs... not least those cheerleaders on clown finance TV...

Q. So.. do you want to go long from the sp'2050s right now?
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**A Tuesday close in the sp'2045/40 zone would be.......... useful.

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*I remain very content to hold short-SPY, and long VIX (via TVIX) overnight.
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3.13pm...  sp'2054... still stuck...  but VIX continues to melt lower, 14.10.

notable strength: miners, GDX +5.5%.. as Gold +$21.


3.34pm...  Still not yet able to clear the 2056 high.   VIX 13.90s..

USD -0.8%....  and that is helping take the downside edge off Oil, but still -2.4% in the $38s. 


3.50pm.. sp'2053... so.. the Yellen wasn't quite enough to break the key high.

If ADP jobs/ oil reports upset the cart tomorrow... we should see increasing weakness into at least the Thursday/March close.

... back at the close!