VIX cools into the Easter weekend

Whilst US equities closed moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued (intra high 16.44), and settling -1.3% @ 14.74. Across the week, the VIX gained 5.1%. The key 20 threshold looks viable late next week/early April.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*note the opening black-fail candle on the hourly chart. Those are often warnings of equity downside exhaustion.
--

It was not surprising to see early VIX gains evaporate into the close, not least because of the long 3 day holiday weekend.

A retrace to the low 14s.. even 13s, seems due next Mon/Tuesday, before the next surge, back to around the key 20 threshold.

*it is highly notable, that the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is now on the extremely low side. At the current rate, a bullish cross is not viable for at least 4-5 weeks.

By default, 'hyper VIX upside' to the 40s.. or 50s, appears possible no earlier than May.

--
more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -0.8pts @ 2035 (intra low 2022). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook threatens a bounce to the 2045/55 zone, but a break above the recent high of 2056 looks overly difficult. First soft downside target is the 1960/50 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: micro chop, but leaning to the upside.
--

... and another (if short) week comes to a close.

Pretty subdued overall, and its been a fair while since we've seen any dynamic price action.

All US indexes look stuck at what are multiple aspects of resistance.
--

Best guess... regardless of any Mon/Tuesday upside, the market looks to have maxed out at sp'2056.

If correct, its just a matter of how many days it takes to test the 50dma/lower daily bollinger.. whether next week.. or early April.
--

Have a good holiday/Easter weekend!

--
*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week.

3pm update - melting into the Easter holiday

US equities remain in micro chop mode, with the hourly cycle swinging back toward the equity bulls. Indeed, the sp'2040s look very viable next Mon/Tuesday. Regardless of the exact close, all US indexes are set for the first net weekly decline in six weeks.


sp'60min

sp'weekly1b

Summary

Little to add.

Interesting week... congrats to those who managed to stay awake for much of it!
-

notable weakness, Seagate (STX), 5.4%.. and I've no idea why.

-
back at the close