A fifth weekly VIX decline

With equities broadly climbing for a fifth consecutive week, the VIX was naturally still in cooling mode (intra low 13.75), settling the day -2.9% @ 14.02. Across the week, the VIX saw a very significant net decline of -15.0%.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, the VIX has now cooled from the Feb'11th high of 30.90 to the 13s.. pretty incredible.

On any fair basis, the VIX is now on the extremely low end of the cycle, and it seems just a matter of when it'll see renewed upside to test the key 20 threshold.
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*I'm still seeking to be long VIX - via TVIX. For the moment, I'm holding off on the notion that WTIC Oil is headed to the $44/45s next week, and that would likely equate to sp'2070/80, with VIX remaining pinned in the low teens.. if not briefly 12s.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +8pts @ 2049 (intra high 2052). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. Near term outlook threatens further Oil upside to the $44/45s, and that might equate to sp'2070/80 zone, before next opportunity of a rollover.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a lot of minor chop, but yet again... leaning on the upside, arguably aided by comments from Bullard.
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...and another crazy week comes to an end.

Clearly, the bull maniacs, and indeed, many of the bears have now capitulated, with the market having climbed from 1810 to 2052.

Everything is fine now, right? Or maybe... not so much. I still expect the coming spring and summer to offer much lower levels.

Have a good weekend

yours... watching and waiting

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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening

3pm update - a fifth net weekly gain

Regardless of any cooling/chop into the quad-opex close, the sp'500 is set for a fifth consecutive net weekly gain. For the moment, there is still no sign of the market maxing out. With WTIC oil now set for the $44/45s, the bull maniacs still have a viable 20/30pts further to go... to the sp'2070/80 zone.


sp'weekly1b

Summary

Suffice to add...  from a bearish perspective, it looks pretty scary... but then, we did see an equally powerful ramp last Sept-Nov'.

*relative to oil, currently -0.6%.. equities are holding up pretty well.

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notable weakness, Transocean (RIG)

An ugly daily chart.. a clear break of trend, and RIG is starting to unravel, having never quite been able to re-take the 200dma. RIG remains on the 'disappear list'.
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*I was just reminded via poster Binkius, we have Fed official Bullard due to speak at 3pm... and Mr Market will no doubt keep an eye on any press release of prepared remarks, and a subsequent Q/A.

Broadly though... market looks set to churn into the close.


3.02pm.. Ahh, here we go...

... and Bullard is issuing the usual threats of QE and NIRP, even arguing that the adverse effects of NIRP are overdone.

NIRP won't cause any distortions or problems in the economy, right?
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3.17pm.. Renewed upside.. sp'2051...  upper hourly bollinger is offering the 2060s... but is surely out of range until early Monday.

In any case.. price action continues to favour the bulls... with the VIX melting back into the 13s.