Tuesday, 15 March 2016

VIX unable to hold gains

Despite most US equity indexes closing weak, the VIX was unable to hold minor gains, settling -0.5% @ 16.84. Near term outlook offers another equity push higher, and that threatens a brief VIX drop to the 15s.. even 14s. However, VIX looks set to begin a new multi-week up cycle... onward to the 30s and beyond.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



Summary

Suffice to add, VIX remains broadly subdued ahead of the latest FOMC announcement.

The daily lower bollinger is offering a brief foray into the 15s.. or even 14s.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly weak, sp -3pts @ 2015. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.6% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers another push higher.. but then maxing out, before cooling across the latter half of the month.


sp'60min



Summary

*closing hour action: as has been the case for the last month... a lot of micro chop, but leaning higher into the close.
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Earlier today I noted I was hoping for a close in the sp'2010/15 zone, to help keep within range the upside gap of 2038/43. 

... so I'm kinda very content with today's close.

Now its a case of waiting to see how the market reacts to the 2pm press release. Certainly, once the FOMC is out of the way, the window is wide open to the bears for the rest of the month.

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Today's closing movie was...


.... Butch Casiddy and the Sundance Kid, what an incredible ending!

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - sleeping into the close

US equities are set for the second consecutive net daily decline, but we remain well within range of the recent high of sp'2024. There is little reason why another spike higher to the gap zone of 2038/43 won't occur.. whether late tomorrow.. or Thursday. In any case.. a key top looks set to occur.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

*metals remain a little weak, Gold -$2, but the related mining stocks are holding up.. GDX +1.0%
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.. this market has been too subdued for me to remain awake today.

Either that.. or its the lack of sunshine. urghh.
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Today has indeed been subdued, tomorrow afternoon offers something different :)

back at the close.