Friday, 11 March 2016

VIX cools into the weekend

With US equities ending the week on a significantly positive note, the VIX was naturally in cooling mode, settling -8.6% @ 16.50. Near term outlook threatens the sp'2020/40 zone, and that might briefly equate to VIX 15/14s.. before a key floor is solidified.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly



Summary

*a net weekly VIX decline of -2.1%
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Suffice to add, a fourth consecutive weekly decline in volatility, having cooled from the Feb'11th high of 30.90, when sp'1810.

Next week's FOMC on Wednesday will make for a very natural equity top and corresponding floor in volatility.

The next big issue is how much might equities cool by end March, and can the VIX attain a monthly close >20.. or even within the 25/30 zone.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week on a significantly positive note, sp +32pts @ 2022. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.3% and 2.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers further upside to the 2038/43 gap zone, before a key top is put in. After the FOMC of March 16th, equities should begin cooling.


sp'60min



Summary

*closing action hour: a fair amount of micro chop, but breaking a new multi-week cycle high of sp'2022.
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A fourth consecutive week for the equity bull maniacs, and almost everyone is back to 'hey.. its ALL fine now' mode.

Naturally, even yours truly is swayed a little by such bullish hysteria, but the bigger monthly charts are what matter.  Unless we see a monthly close >2020 or so... there is zero reason to drop the bigger bearish outlook.


The real issue is how far we might drop in the next multi-week down wave. I realise some are looking for just the 1700s, but I sure hope things get more dynamic than that. Preferably, at least the 1650/1550 zone by early summer.

In any case.. the FOMC is just 2.6 trading days away :)  Once this is out of the way, the equity bears have an open window into end month.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and piece across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - leaning higher into the weekend

US equities remain significantly higher, with the smaller 5/15min cycles offering renewed upside into the weekly close. USD is +0.1% in the DXY 96.10s. Metals are mixed, Gold -$11, whilst Silver +0.3%. Oil is helping the broader market mood, +1.2% in the $38s.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

Little to add.

Its been an interesting week, and regardless of the exact close... a fourth week for the equity bulls.

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notable weakness... TVIX, daily


Not surprisingly, TVIX is melting lower, set for a fourth consecutive net weekly decline. The $5.75/5.50 zone looks set to be the floor next week.
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back at the close.