VIX set to cool

With equities seeing significant weakness, the VIX opened at 29.26, but settling +7.0% @ 28.14. If the sp'500 can hold the marginal double floor of 1812/10, and begin another bounce wave spanning 4-7 trading days, VIX looks set to cool to the low 20s, perhaps 19/18s.. very briefly.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, it is notable that we have a VIX divergence, whilst the sp'500 made a marginal double floor from 1812/10, the VIX put in a moderately lower low of the 30s vs 32s.

It is probably one of the more bullish equity signs right now.

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Clearly though, the VIX is set for much higher levels this spring, the 40/50s look a rather easy target.

For the sp'1600s - with VIX 40/50s, equity bears/volatility bulls will likely need a few 'corporate black swans'... aka, something from the oil/gas/mining sector... or even a financial.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly lower, but well above the mid afternoon lows (intra low sp'1810), settling -22pts @ 1829. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.4% and -1.0% respectively. Near term outlook offers yet another chance for a 4-7 day rally, back above the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra high of 1839... but not yet able to settle above the hourly 10MA
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.... well, that sure wasn't dull.

A rather classic turn around 2.30pm, closing around 1% above the low. Not quite 'hyper'... but it gives the bulls a buffer tomorrow.

We've a long 3 day weekend ahead, and there is always going to be threat that the PBOC might do something this weekend/Monday.

Broadly... regardless of any short term bounce... the bigger trend remains absolutely bearish.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - late day hyper ramp

The sp'500 broke a fractional new cycle low of 1810, but from there it has formed a very clear spike floor. Meanwhile, there is chatter that OPEC are in talks for supply cuts.. but such cuts will likely be minor, and will take months to feed through.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

So.... another example of a turn from 2.30pm.  Kinda like magic, yes?

It looks like we've a short term floor... but of course.. broadly... the bigger trend is absolutely bearish.

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In far more important news... we've a new Batman vs Superman trailer


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Unless we collapse <1800.. or soar beyond 1900......... I'll merely return at the close.