VIX climbs for a third day

With equities seeing some very bearish follow through from last Friday's declines, the VIX was naturally continuing to climb (intra high 27.72), settling +11.2% @ 26.00. Near term outlook is borderline, as some equity indexes have already broken below the Jan'20th low - when VIX was in the 32s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

What to make of today?

Well, VIX is clearly getting stuck again in the 26/27s. Price action in the VIX is still relatively subdued - relative to equity weakness. Today was certainly not a capitulation day in the market.

Hyper upside to VIX 40/50s still looks out of range until at least mid March.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes began the week with very significant declines, sp -26pts @ 1853 (intra low 1828). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is very borderline, with serious threat of the Jan'20th low of 1812 bring broken.. as the Nasdaq and R2K have now done so.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action:  a bit of chop, but then a clear break to the upside, with bears rushing to cover, terrified of what Tue/Wednesday might bring.
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First, it is notable that the market floored at the typical afternoon turn time of 2.30pm. Always kooky how that is often the case.

With the market having cooled from last Monday afternoon @ 1947 to 1828, that is a pretty powerful swing, and its not like there was any particular spooky news. It is arguably the underlying econ/commodity related problems continuing to build.
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The hourly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is set to turn positive @ 10am tomorrow, so the inclination will be for upside, at least to 1880.

Sustained action >1900 is clearly out of range until Yellen has 'inspired' things.

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This market IS a beast...



I highly recommend the movie... which has a seriously intense score.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - rough start to the week

Regardless of the exact close, US equity indexes are set to close significantly lower for the second consecutive day. It is highly notable that the Nasdaq and the R2K have both broken below their Jan'20th lows. That sure doesn't bode well for the rest of the market into the spring.


Nasdaq comp', daily

R2K, daily

Summary

Clearly, today's declines are way lower than seemed possible last week.

The problem for anyone trying to go long for a Yellen bounce is that the Nasdaq and R2K are suggestive the rest of the market might follow.. this week.

In any case.. the broader mid term picture is down. We can agree on that much.. yes?
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re: VIX, +16% in the 27s... and relatively, I'd still argue this is somewhat subdued considering the indexes.

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3.18pm... another vain attempt to bounce.. 1828 to 1841... with VIX cooling to the 26s.

Broadly though.. it sure ain't pretty, and problem for the bulls is that Yellen is still a full day away.

notable strength: Cracker Barrel, +2.6% @ $130.   Lately, that seems to perform a lot better than main market.


3.32pm... a clear attempt to floor (yet again)...

... are the cheerleaders talking about a 'turnaround Tuesday' yet? I've got them on mute.


3.34pm.. a clear UPSIDE break.  Bears will be rushing to cover now.. VIX set to lose the 26s.

3.42pm.. and there is 1850... a full 22pts above the low from 2.30pm... very dynamic action..

Yellen is on her way..................


3.46pm... Fierce short-stop cascade.... sp'1856... 1.4% swing since 2.30pm....  

3.48pm.. notable strength, AAPL +1.6%... with sp'1859..  VIX 25s....