VIX relatively subdued

It was notable today that despite the sp-42pts in the afternoon, the VIX only showed relatively moderate gains (intra high 22.19), settling +10.0% @ 21.98. Near term outlook offers threat of 23/24s - along with sp'1890/80s, before renewed equity upside next week to the sp'1970s, which should equate to VIX 18/17s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffce to add, lower VIX levels look due into next week, before the equity bears have any realistic hope of sustained downside.

If we see the sp'1970s, that should equate to VIX 18/17s.. whether late next week, or in opex week.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -36pts @ 1903 (intra low 1897). The two leaders -Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.9% and -2.3% respectively. Near term outlook offers a moderate bounce, before a brief foray to 1890/80 zone... and then pushing back upward to the 1970s next week.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a new intra low of 1897, but offering a short term floor..
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Today opened weak, and it was one of those days where the market was entirely unable to bounce.

Since the March 2009 low, its still pretty unusual to see such a day.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - battling to claw upward into the close

The sp'500 is offering a short term floor of 1900, with a viable bounce into 'ADP jobs' Wednesday. It would seem we'll see a brief foray into the 1890/80s on Thurs/Friday, before reversing powerfully back upward next week. Broadly, the 1970s still look on track, along with VIX 18/17s.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Well, no doubt a few will be screaming for a straight run to break the Jan'20th low of sp'1812, but that seems extremely unlikely.

The bigger weekly cycles continue to favour the equity bulls - at least in terms of a few more weeks of chop... NOT sustained action >2K.
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back at the close