VIX continues to cool

With US equity indexes closing moderately mixed, the VIX remained broadly subdued, settling -1.1% @ 19.98. Near term outlook offers the 18s, with 17/16s next week.. if sp'1970s. Next major opportunity for hyper VIX upside is likely not until mid March.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*there was a 'rogue print' of 23.66 in the morning, and is arguably to be dismissed as such.
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Little to add.

VIX looks set to continue melting lower into next week. It would seem the 18s are viable this week, 17/16s... next Wed/Thursday.
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*I've eyes on TVIX-long, but will hold off at least until Yellen appears next Wed/Thursday
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp -0.9pts @ 1939 (intra low 1920). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.9% and -0.3% respectively. Near term outlook is choppy, with the 1970s more viable next week. February looks set for a great deal of chop/churn, with the next major wave lower unlikely until March.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: with no real sell side pressure, indexes see a latter day recovery, breaking a new cycle high of 1947, having battled upward from the Jan'20th low of 1812.
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Little to add, on what was a rather tedious day.

In some ways, it could be argued to most, to just walk away for a week.. or even the rest of the month.

First real opportunity of next powerful downside action is not likely until March.That doesn't mean there won't be tradeable swings of 2-3%, but from a bearish perspective, I don't much like the idea of shorting from anything until 1970s.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - VIX was today's tell

Equity bears should have noticed the VIX (via VXX, TVIX/UVXY) as early as pre-market. The VIX remains broadly subdued, and now its a case of whether today closes a little above.. or below the key 20 threshold. The daily lower bollinger is around 18.50... and that is clearly within range this week.


VIX'daily3

sp'daily5b

Summary

Well, not much to add.

Its a rather tedious start to the month, despite seeing the sp'500 rally from a morning low of 1920 to almost back to flat.

In any case, VIX was indeed the tell.

notable weakness... TVIX, daily

You can see the lower bollinger offering the 7s in the near term.. and that does seem likely. With another week or two of chop... TVIX will suffer some statistical decay, and a brief foray into the 6s will be possible next week.

I'd be tempted in the low 7s, but even then, I'd rather wait until Yellen next Wed/Thursday.
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back at the close