VIX cools a little

Whilst US equity indexes closed very mixed, the VIX saw moderate swings across the day, settling -3.6% @ 26.05. Near term outlook offers the sp'1940/60 zone into the next FOMC (Jan'27th), and that should equate to VIX 20/18. Broadly.. the 40s are extremely probable by early spring.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to add, relative to the ongoing equity weakness, the VIX arguably remains subdued.

Keep in mind, when sp'1867 in Aug'2015, the VIX exploded to the low 50s. Of course, that was largely due to the style of price action, but still.. it is surprising to see VIX broadly stuck <30, whilst most equity indexes have now broken below the Aug'2015 low.

What should be clear, whether its a few weeks, or a few months, VIX 40s are coming. The only issue is whether the style of price action is dynamic enough on the downside to briefly merit 50s.. or even 60s.
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*I am looking to be long VIX next week, probably via TVIX, somewhere in the $7/6s.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed very mixed, sp +1pt @ 1881 (intra range 1901/1864). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -1.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains for a bounce into the next FOMC, best bullish case is for 1960/70s, before renewed powerful downside to the 1750/25 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: with a floor of sp'1864 from 2.45pm, the market soared into the close.
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Well, today turned out to be a hell of a lot more wild than expected.

The opening gains to >1900 were no surprise, but yet another FULL reversal was a surprise.

We now have a higher low of 1864... the hourly cycle is offering 1920/30 tomorrow... and that should equate to VIX 23/22s.
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**Awaiting earnings from IBM and NFLX

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - Oil is causing renewed problems

US equities continue to struggle, with the sp' having seen a powerful downward swing of 1.8% from sp'1901 to 1864. Oil is -3.6% in the $29s.. as the market remains understandably concerned (amongst many things) at Iranian Oil production. If sp'1857 fails to hold, then its empty air to the 1750/25 zone.


sp'15min

VIX'60min

Summary

..so much for the bull flag... the 1870s really needed to hold.

If 1857 fails.. then its empty air to 1750/25 BEFORE the FOMC... and then a rally.

Best guess: the low HOLDS, but for anyone bold enough who is long, 1857 remains the ultimate and absolutely clear dead-stop level.
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notable weakness...

CHK, daily

.. as Mr Market is starting to finally recognise this company is on the 'disappear list'.
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3.10pm.. a notable bounce from sp'1864 to 1874... bulls need a close >1875 to break above short term down trend.

VIX -1% in the 26s... showing NO sign of going hyper.. and that IS a problem for the equity bears.


3.25pm.. Well, there is sp'1878... a net daily fractional gain is on the menu... but hell... bulls got a real scare just earlier.

VIX confirming the underlying upward pressure, -1% in the 26s.

I'd only feel comfortably long-VIX from 20/18.. with TVIX 7/6s.


3.29pm.. pretty fierce short-stop cascade... swinging from 1864 to 1881

It remains a NASTY MARKET ! 
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3.31pm...

sp'15min

We have our first higher low, next target.. break >1901 tomorrow.
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3.50pm.. very nasty for any bears chasing lower this afternoon.. swinging from 1864 to 1888