VIX back on the rise

With equities closing significantly lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise (intra high 21.86), settling +6.5% @ 20.59. Near term outlook offers further equity weakness to the sp'1960/50s, and that should equate to VIX 25/26s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*a notable second black-fail candle in three trading days. Typically, such candles would be indicative of renewed equity upside.
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The VIX was something of an anomaly today. Yes, it closed net higher, but the gains were minor, relative to the equity declines.

Is VIX warning that equities are very close to flooring, or is VIX merely lagging, reflecting market complacency?

My guess is its the latter, with lower equity levels due in the days ahead. If that is the case, the VIX should at least test the highs from Dec' 14th.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -26pts @ 1990 (intra low 1979). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.0% and -1.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for continued weakness to the gap zone of 1954/51. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles are more suggestive of 1920/00.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: A new intra low of 1979.05, but then rebounding around 0.5%.
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... and that concludes trading day'3 of 2016. The second big daily decline of the year... and the equity bears are giving the mainstream cheerleaders a good scare to begin the year.

There is a lot of chatter about a rebound. Some are even touting new highs.. but that seems ludicrous.

Anyone who gives ANY credence to the bigger weekly/monthly cycles should be well aware of the current broader trend shift to the downside.

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more later.... on the VIX

3pm update - net daily declines

US equity indexes are set for the fourth net daily decline in five trading days. Market mood remains very weak, and the 1960/50s still look an easy target. Gold is holding a fear bid gain of $14, whilst Oil remains -5.0% in the upper $33s.


sp'15min

sp'60min

Summary

New intra low... confirming the bear flag. In theory, it should now be a straight run to at least the 1960/50s early tomorrow.

Regardless of the exact close.... its another day for the equity bears.
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*as things are, it seems I've been lost in the minor noise, and I am not interested in shorting from this level.

The next realistic prime setup won't arguably be until late January.
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3.36pm.. For those who come back more than once an hour.. this is for you...

sp'15min

If for whatever reason we open higher tomorrow, I'll look to short it then. In any case... price action remains weak.

VIX is +6%.. which frankly is surprisingly...  well below the Monday high.

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back at the close......