Daily Wrap

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -31pts @ 2012 (intra low 1989). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.1% and -2.4% respectively. The VIX was naturally on the rise (intra high 23.36), but with equities seeing a spike into the close, settling +13.7% @ 20.70.


sp'daily5

Trans, daily

VIX'daily3

Summary

Unquestionably, a daily for the equity bears. Indeed, it was the third consecutive net daily decline for all US indexes. The VIX certainly confirmed the equity weakness, with an important daily close above the key 20 threshold.

A move to sp'1950 looks extremely probable this week, and that would likely equate to VIX 26/27.

The bigger weekly/monthly charts are offering downside to sp'1920/00 in the immediate term. Were that the case, VIX would be in the low 30s.
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*At 8pm EST I will publish the outlook for 2016, along with YOUR predictions :)

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -31pts @ 2012 (intra low 1989). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.1% and -2.4% respectively. Near term outlook offers a gap fill at 1950, if not a little lower to the 1920/00 zone - as suggested by the bigger weekly/monthly cycles.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: weakness to 1993, but holding the morning low of 1989, spiking higher into the close, as no doubt some equity bears closed out after a third net daily decline.
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... and that concludes trading day'1 of 250 (or so) in 2016.

Clearly, a day for the equity bears, having seen a fair few aspects of support broken under.

I realise some will be calling a floor from 1989, but that makes ZERO sense as a key floor for early January.

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Highlight of the day... seeing Pisani quoting circuit breaker limits in the early morning. Those cheerleaders on clown finance TV sure get spooked easily.

If the market sees broad weakness in the weeks and months ahead, the mainstream will no doubt start to get real moody with Yellen. Calls for more money printing will soon start appearing.

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a daily wrap will appear at 6pm EST.

The 'outlook for 2016' - with YOUR predictions, will appear at 8pm.

3pm update - a third day of declines

All US equity indexes are set for a third consecutive net daily decline. With the sp' having broken multiple aspects of support, the door is wide open to an initial washout for the new year to the sp'1920/00 zone. Gold is holding sig' gains of $14, whilst Oil remains weak, -0.5% in the $36s.


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

Suffice to say, a close some where in the sp'1995/2010 zone seems probable.

Price structure is likely to become a more refined bear flag by 11am tomorrow. At that point... market will arguably become a valid short again.

Or maybe you think we'll somehow be trading >2050 any time soon?
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*it should be noted that despite the market rallying 16pts from the low, the VIX held most of the gains, and remains +21% in the 22s. The 30s look viable this week.

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back at the close... unless <1989... in which case I will appear

Ohh.. and I'm just finalising the 'outlook for 2016' post.. that will appear at 8pm EST
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3.28pm.. looking at the micro price action... sub' B of a bear flag? So long as 1989 holds... then yes. A C' UP into tomorrow morning to 2010 would be the most natural outcome.

notable weakness:  FB -3.5%, as even the momo leaders are getting the smack down.


3.46pm.. I'm probably starting to get lost in the minor noise, but we could be seeing a C' UP already underway.. with the sp' swinging from 1993 to 2004.

Right now, the market will be liable to get stuck around the hourly 10MA tomorrow @ 2010.