VIX battling for the 20 threshold

With equity indexes closing significantly lower, the VIX battled upward, settling +6.0% @ 18.94. Near term outlook offers threat of sp'2025/20 zone, that would likely equate to VIX 20.00/20.50. Equities look broadly set for renewed upside into the 2100s, and that would see the VIX cooling to the low teens by year end.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

It would seem the market wants to fill the equity price gap of sp'2025/21.. along with VIX 20.00/20.50..  this Friday morning. From there, equities should resume higher and break/hold the sp'2100s.

*I have ZERO interest in being long volatility in the near term.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -31pts at 2041. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.0% and -1.2% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of the sp'2025/20 zone, before surging back into the 2100s by Christmas Eve.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a lot of chop.. but breaking a new intraday low in the closing minutes.
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With the lower hourly bollinger around 2038/37, the lower gap zone of 2025/21 is within range tomorrow morning.
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Maybe its just me, but it sure doesn't feel like we're currently net higher on the week by around 1.5%.

A week ago.... some were calling for a QUAD-OPEX crash to the 1900s.. or even 1800s... we're almost certainly not going under 2K again for the remainder of the year.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - price action remains weak

US equities are still struggling, with the sp'500 unable to claw back above the hourly 10MA - around 2057/59. It is highly notable that despite the ongoing weakness, the VIX remains broadly flat. With the USD holding strong gains of 1.4%, metals and oil remain significantly lower.


sp'60min

Summary

So.. to be clear....

There remains threat the Tuesday opening gap of 2025/21 zone will be briefly hit.. before the equity bulls can resume higher.

What should be absolutely clear... sustained price action under the Monday low of 1993 looks extremely unlikely. Instead.. we still look set for the 2100s.

The only real issue is whether we break new historic highs before year end. With just 9 full trading days left of the year... its getting a little difficult.
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notable weakness...

TWTR, daily

TWTR sure is the ugliest momo stock out there. Hell, maybe it doesn't even merit being deemed a momo stock any more. The IPO was at $26, and we're consistently trading under that... next level is the Aug' historic low of $21.01.