VIX moderately lower

It was a mixed day in VIX land, with a morning peak of 26.81, but with a significant equity recovery into the close, the VIX cooled, settling -6.8% @ 22.73. Near term outlook is for equities to begin a sustained rally post FOMC, with broader upside into early 2016.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily'3

Summary

It is entirely possible (if not probable) that today saw a key VIX peak, with broad downside for the remainder of the year.

From a pure cyclical perspective, the MACD (blue bar histogram) is now on the high side.

The setup favours the equity bulls... once the FOMC is out of the way.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +9pts @ 2021 (intra low 1993). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for the market to stabilise ahead of the FOMC announcement, and then push higher. First soft targets are sp'2050s, then 2080/85.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: a fair bit of chop.. but renewed upside into the close.. as no doubt a tranche of the bears decided to cash out.

Note the bullish MACD cross in the closing hour, it bodes in favour of the bulls early Tuesday.. before further weak chop.
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So... sp'1993.. but then a late morning turn.... and rallying to the 2020s.

Of course... with each passing hour... price action is likely to become more subdued ahead of the FOMC.

What matters will be the Wed' close.

Unquestionably.. the set up favours the bulls... once we're past this latest Fed nonsense.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - the Transports

It is highly notable that whilst the market has seen a significant bounce from the morning low of sp'1993 to the 2010s.. the Transports did break below the Aug' low. Since late November, the Trans has declined 11.4% to 7406.. the lowest level since April 2014.


Trans, daily

sp'60min

Summary

*most probably do not realise that the Trans' broke the Oct'2014 low (equiv' to sp'1820) in Aug'.. and we're decisively below that today.
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For now.. we have a provisional pre-FOMC low of sp'1993.

I'm well aware of the gap zone around sp'1950... but that looks out of range until AFTER the FOMC.... and we should be rallying by then anyway.

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Is sp'1993 enough to spook the Fed not to raise rates?   No.  It might be enough to sway them to compromise though.

Rates moves... now in tenths.. like the ECB ?

A lame micro move of 0.1% would certainly be enough to cool the concerns of the mainstream.
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back at the close