With equities seeing a significant rebound from the morning low of sp'2070, to close at 2089, the VIX cooled from an intra high of 17.21, settling +2.0% @ 15.93. Near term outlook is for further equity upside.. into the sp'2100s.. and to new historic highs >2134.
VIX'60min
VIX'daily3
Summary
Suffice to note, VIX maxed out at declining resistance/trend... with the market flooring at sp'2070.
Even if VIX falls under 13 by the next FOMC... there is seemingly high chance of a brief spike to the 20 threshold.. before renewed cooling into January.
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*I have ZERO interest in being long volatility until late spring 2016.. at the earliest.
US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2089 (intra low 2070). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.6% and +0.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside into the 2100s... and to new historic highs >2134.
sp'60min
Summary
*closing hour action: mostly micro chop, but with a new intra high of 2094... 1.2% above the morning low.
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... and another wacky ride in the casino comes to a close.
I do understand why some will be utterly bemused at this mornings turn around. After all, what was the good news?
Mostly.. it was cyclical, as the smaller 5/15/60min equity cycles were on the very low side. 2070 was the 50% retrace of the recent wave from 2045/97.
This market is headed higher.... although maybe there is no way of knowing where the market is rowing?
The danger must be growing.. for the algo-bots keep on buying....
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Regardless of the exact close, it would seem the market has put in another higher low @ sp'2070.. with VIX having maxed out at 17.21. The sp'2100s look due.. whether tomorrow, Friday... or next week. Oil is holding sig' gains of 2.4% in the upper $42s... ahead of the next inventory reports.
sp'60min
VIX'60min
Summary
*I only noticed it earlier, but the VIX effectively maxed out around declining resistance/trend. Sub-teens look due... although I am very open to a test of the 20 threshold before year end.. and that does not exclude my year end target of sp'2150/70.
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So.. a little chop in the 2pm hour... with news of another hostage situation in northern France.
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Anyone still think we'll see sustained trading under sp'2060 in the remainder of the year?
If we break >2134 - which seems VERY likely, you can arguably add another 5% to that.. so that gives us the 2240/60s in Jan/Feb... before the next moderate retrace.
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back at the close... unless something dramatic happens
