VIX claws a little higher

With US equities breaking new cycle highs, the VIX was under downward pressure across the day, but settled +2.8% @ 14.54 (intra low 13.81). Near term outlook still offers an equity retrace.. at least to the 200dma in the sp'2060s... perhaps 2020s. That should equate to VIX at least trading briefly within the 18/20 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX looks set to jump later this week.. first target is the 18/20 zone.

It is possible - depending on style of equity downside, the VIX might break above the 20 threshold. As things are... the very best case is VIX 25... and even if hit, would not be sustained for more than a few hours.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +5pts @ 2109 (intra high 2116). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and +0.4% respectively. Near term outlook remains for a retrace, but with each extra point higher, the downside target is raised. First soft target is the 200dma in the 2060s, with secondary in the 2025/20 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, a touch of weakness, but still, a new high is a new high
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I have to wonder just what some of the doomer bears are looking at. I'm well aware of some of the wave counts/theories out there.. calling for some kind of 'test of the Aug' lows'.. but really... didn't we test the lows in Sept'.. with a marginally higher low for the sp'500 ?

At best.. a retrace is going to maybe test the 50dma... 2020s.. by Nov' opex. The notion of sustained action under the sp'2K threshold seems.. ludicrous.

I realise some of you out there will get riled up at that.. but that is how I see it.

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*more later... on the VIX

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awaiting earnings from TSLA


4.16pm.. TSLA earnings (or lack of)... lousy  58 cent loss.   Rev. , marginal miss.

Stock has been swinging wildly from $202 to $230.

Conf' call expected.. if that fails to inspired.. could open in the 210/200 zone.
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3pm update - yet another cycle high

With WTIC Oil prices pushing into the $48s, the US equity market keeps on pushing upward, with a new cycle high of sp'2116.. a mere 18pts (0.9%) from the May high. Metals remain under pressure - as support has been decisively broken, Gold -$16, with Silver -1.0%.


sp'60min

Summary

Without question.. this is beyond crazy... but then.. the Oct' monthly close was a major warning to those still holding to a broadly bearish outlook.
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With further new highs.. first soft target is now the 200dma.. in the 2060s. At best.. the 2020s by Nov' opex.

Anyone still think 'sustained action <2K'?  Are we really going to see some tout sp'1900s... or even lower on some web forums/pages this evening?

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Earnings due at the close from TSLA

TLSA, daily

Very hard to guess how this one will trade post earnings. Cyclically, it is pushing upward.. but it remains a loss making industrial... and there is ZERO sign of that changing any time soon.

Indeed, it'll likely need an injection of new capital just to keep afloat... whether via new share issue and/or corp' debt.

One to arguably best leave alone... and merely watch for 'entertainment purposes'.

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back at the close.