Wednesday, 14 October 2015

VIX climbs for a second day

With equity indexes closing broadly weak for a second day, the VIX managed the second consecutive net daily gain, settling +1.6% @ 17.96 (intra high 18.78). Near term outlook is that equities will resume higher, for a test of critical resistance in the sp'2040/60 zone.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



Summary

Little to add.

In the scheme of things, VIX remains relatively subdued. The key 20 threshold looks out of range in the immediate term.
--

more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly weak for a second consecutive day, sp -9pts @ 1994 (intra high 2009). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.9% respectively. Near term outlook offers strong support around the 50dma of sp'1985. Renewed upside still looks due to key resistance of 2040/60.


sp'60min



Summary

*closing hour action: moderate chop, with a micro attempt to rally, stalling at 1997... similarly reflected in the VIX
-

Certainly, it was not the most exciting of days, as market volatility remains relatively low.

All things considered, I still have to expect new highs.. with broad upside into the next FOMC of Oct'28th.

It remains the case that how the market reacts in the sp'2040/60 zone.. that will be very telling indeed.
-

**Awaiting earnings from Jessica Jones.. aka NFLX.

--
more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equity indexes look set to close on the weaker side. Regardless of the exact close, renewed upside still looks due.. at least to the sp'2030/40s. Metals are set to close with sig' gains, Gold +$18, with Silver +1.7%. Oil remains seeing minor chop in the $46s.. ahead of next pair of inventory reports.


sp'60min



USO'60min



Summary

*Oil remains battling to break out of the down trend, with the API report due AH, and the EIA report due tomorrow at 11am. Lately though, Oil seems to cope with any adverse net weekly inventory gains rather well.

As it is, the hourly cycle is set to turn bullish in 1-3 trading hours.
--

Little to add.. on what has been another not entirely exciting day. Even the WMT drama didn't really cause much more of a localised market quake.

It is notable that INTC which opened sharply lower to $30.85, is set to close net higher in the mid $32s.

*NFLX earnings at the close...  and that will be something to watch.

--
back at the close.