VIX cools for a tenth day

Whilst equities traded very quietly on what was a semi-holiday session, the VIX continued to cool, settling lower for the tenth consecutive day, -5.3% @ 16.17. Near term outlook is for continued equity upside, which should equate to VIX in the 15/14s.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*special note: the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle, which has now seen a bearish cross... negative cycle.. for the first time since early August.
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So.. VIX saw yet another net daily decline.. ten days down.. and looking back.. I can't find any such downside run in the past ten years.

In some ways, it could be argued as a key underlying signal that VIX 40/30s (never mind the 50s) are now out of range for the remainder of the year.

I realise though, many of the equity bears will continue to call the recent rally from sp'1867 as largely about short-covering.

Regardless of which side you might be inclined to believe, the VIX has now cooled from 53.29 (Aug 24th) to 16.15... this afternoon.

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*I have ZERO interest in being long-VIX in the immediate term.. and probably until the next FOMC of Oct'28th
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +2pts @ 2017. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.1% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for further upside to the 2040/60 zone before the next FOMC of Oct' 28th.


sp'60min

Summary

After the rather wild swings since mid August, it was the quietest trading day in at least a few months.

Energy stocks saw sig' weakness, as Oil cooled from the $50 threshold to the $47s.

Broadly, equities still look set to push higher.. certainly above the recent 2020 high, and likely to 2040/50. Clearly, there will be powerful resistance at the 200dma around 2060.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - another hour of mostly nothing

US equities are set to close with further nano scale price chop... with most indexes set to close broadly flat. VIX is naturally continuing to cool, -3% in the mid 16s... and it will make for the tenth consecutive net daily decline. Gold is holding moderate gains of $4, whilst Oil is at the lows, -4.7% in the $47s.


sp'60min

USO'60min

Summary

Very quiet start to the week, it can only get more lively from here, right?

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*I will consider picking up a long-USO position tomorrow morning.

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back at the close