VIX continues to cool

With equities closing moderately higher, the VIX remained in cooling mode, settling -5.3% @ 21.35 (intra low 21.09). Near term outlook offers threat of a brief post-FOMC sell down to the sp'1960s, but broadly... the 2040s still look due.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*VIX opex was today.. so now Oct' is front month.
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Little to add.

Regardless of any brief sell down after the FOMC announcement, equities still look set to push into the sp'2000s... and VIX will surely lose the 20 threshold.

*I will look to pick up a VIX-long position (more likely, early next week), preferably in the 17/15 zone.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +17pts @ 1995 (intra high 1997). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers threat of a brief post-FOMC sell down to the 1960s, but broadly... the 2040s still look due.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour: continued upside... as the bears are short-stopped out.
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Well...  another rough day for those still resolutely holding short. I do sympathise.

Tomorrow will be a key day of course... but more on that later...

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I am on the sidelines, having dropped USO-long from $15.40. I'm very content with things... having battled damn hard to trade the long side since Aug'24th.

more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - chop into the close

US equities look set to close in the sp'1995/85 zone, with VIX 22/21s. USD remains moderately weak, -0.3% in the DXY 95.30s, which is helping commodities - Gold +$13. Oil +5.0% in the $47/46s.


sp'60min

USO'15min

Summary

*as at the Thursday close.. there is viable downside to 1960.. without breaking rising trend/bear flag
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Market will likely remain in minor chop mode into tomorrow afternoon.

I remain of the view that regardless of decision.. the market will rally (and that doesn't negate the threat of an initial sell down).

I have little interest to launch any market shorts until next week.

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I continue to have eyes on picking up USO again.. but unless 15.10/00.. I'll leave it alone... and wait for a market top in the sp'2040s or so.

Regardless... today has been fine.
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back at the close.