VIX climbs into the weekend

With US equities ending the week on a significantly bearish note, the VIX was back on the rise, settling + 8.5% @ 27.80 (intra high 29.47). Near term outlook is borderline, and will be dependent on whether the market can hold above the Tue' low of sp'1903.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*the VIX saw a net weekly gain of 6.7%.
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VIX is now sustainably holding in the 20/30s... which we've not seen since late 2011.

If sp' loses the recent double low of 1867 - which seems almost inevitable at some point in late Sept/early Oct', then VIX will probably be exploding back into the 50s.. and beyond.

*I will be looking to pick up a significant VIX-long position in FOMC week.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities ended the week on a very bearish note, sp -29pts @ 1921 (intra low 1911). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, if market can hold >1900, then 2000 into FOMC week, otherwise... the bull maniacs have a real problem.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour action: some significant short-stop cascade into the close... with perhaps a few brave bull maniacs chasing higher.. on hopes that we'll open higher next Tuesday
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.... and another wild week in market land come to a close.

Without question, a week for the bears

Best guess.. we still push higher to sp'2000... but that a major collapse wave is due after mid Sept'... regardless of whether the fed raise rates or not.

Good to hear from many of you this week :)

Get some rest across the three day holiday weekend!
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - another wild week

Regardless of the exact close, it has been another wild week in the US equity market, with the sp'500 set for a net weekly decline of around -3.5%. The only marginally bullish aspect is that this week saw a higher low of sp'1903. Broadly though.. this is a broken market, headed to the Oct'2014 low of 1820... and beyond.


sp'weekly1b

sp'60min

Summary

I'm getting tired...  but I think we are all.. right?

Suffice to note, no matter the close, its a bearish end to a bearish week.

Regardless of ANY bounce next week.. and into the FOMC... this market is clearly broken. A grander collapse wave to the low sp'1700s remains a primary target into Oct'. I'll endeavour to catch that one.

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I will hold a micro AAPL-long position across the long weekend. That is obviously underwater, but its small enough that I ain't going to lose any sleep. With a product conf' next Wednesday, I'd have to imagine some degree of brief hysteria next Tue/Wed, which would make for an exit opportunity.
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Updates into the close... not least if we get a little closer to the 1903 low.... or >1920.
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3.15pm.. With the market vainly battling to break back into the 1920s.. AAPL has at least broken the downward trend..

15min

The 110s look out of range by the close.. but by next Wed' 112/113s is not overly bold.
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3.37pm.. Some kind of short-stop cascade underway.