VIX higher for a second day

With equities closing lower for the second consecutive day, the VIX managed another net daily gain, settling +10.4% @ 31.40 (intra high 33.82). Near term outlook is for renewed equity upside, which should see the VIX cooling back to the low 20s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*note the daily closing candle.. a black-fail doji, which itself is a reminder than the VIX saw an opening hourly black-fail candle.
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VIX certainly continues to reflect a market that is regularly seeing powerful swings.

All things considered, price structure IS a large bear flag, and does bode for further VIX cooling, with equities having upside back above the sp'2000 threshold.

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more later on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly lower, sp -58pts @ 1913 (intra low 1903). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -2.1% and -2.7% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed upside, at least to the sp'2000 threshold.. with VIX cooling to the low 20s.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour.. very weak price action.. new lows.. as also reflected in the VIX which broke into the 33s.
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First, I realise the idea of 'renewed upside' from here seems absurd.. but then... wasn't a retrace from 1993 to the 1945/30 zone last Friday?

This could easily just be Mr Market trying to washout the maximum number of bull maniacs, before the next lurch higher.. based on nonsense talk from Draghi (Thursday) and/or Goldilocks jobs data (Friday).

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*yours truly is now underwater in a moderately sized AAPL-long position. Not a great day, but then... I was in much the same situation last week.. and that worked out okay.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a retrace day for the bears

US equities remain significantly lower, and regardless of the exact close, it has been a second consecutive day in favour of the bears. There has been sustained downward pressure, as reflected in the VIX.. back in the 31s. Broadly though, renewed equity upside looks due.. at least to the sp'2000 threshold.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*price structure on the VIX hourly remains a large bear flag, and I will be rather surprised if the VIX does not cool lower to the 20 threshold within a week or two.
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So.. we're still sig' lower, and I realise many will be seeking a break <1900 tomorrow/later this week.. but for now.. I'm guessing the move from Friday to today was a simple (if somewhat powerful) retrace of last weeks 126pt hyper-ramp.
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notable strength: airlines, DAL +0.8%, UAL, 0.4%

updates into the close... not least if we see a major snap higher... or lower.
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3.22pm Price action sure isn't pretty, and there is no sign of a turn... indeed, there is no threat of another minor wave lower into the close.

The bulls face a problem in that we're going to settle just 1% or so from 1900 threshold.. and if 1900 fails to hold... then 1867 is next... but equally viable.. 1820.
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Can Draghi rescue things this Thursday, or will he seal the markets fate?
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3.33pm.. sp -57pts @ 1914... and right now. still zero sign of a turn.  VIX confirms the new lows, +14% in the 32s.

Stray thought.. China.. will the leadership come on out again and start buying?
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3.43pm.. sp'1907...   VIX 33s... what a train wreck....   a sub 1900 close is now viable...


3.48pm.. micro jump from 1903 to 1912.. but really.. it is a train wreck of a close.  

The threat is now an overnight gap lower.. straight through 1867.. and to 1820... tomorrow.