VIX cools into the weekend

With equities closing moderately mixed, the VIX was unable to hold afternoon gains of around 10% (intra high 29.20), settling -0.2% @ 26.05. Near term outlook is for the sp'1945/30 zone, and that should equate to VIX in the 30s.. before cooling back to the 20 threshold by mid Sept'.


VIXdaily3

VIX'weekly2

Summary

*a net weekly decline of -7.1%
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As is often the case, the VIX was knocked lower into the weekly close..

5min

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It was the wildest week in the VIX since the equity collapse wave of August 2011, with the highest VIX print since Jan' 2009 of 53.29.
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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 1988 (intra high 1993). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for a retrace to the 1945/30 zone, before renewed upside to 2050/70 zone, into the week of the next FOMC (Sept'17).


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour.. a fair bit of moderate chop... but managing a broadly flat close.
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... and one of the wildest trading weeks EVER... comes to a close.

Congrats to all who survived it!

It does look like we'll fall to 1945/30 next week.. before pushing above the big 2000 threshold in early September.

Broader outlook... sp'2050/70.... then downside (at least) to the Oct'2014 low of 1820. The 1725/00 zone looks possible in Oct, which would make for a natural 38% fib' retrace of the gains from Oct'2011.

*thanks for all the messages/emails this week, it has meant I've not slept as much.. but I think that is what weekends are for.

Have a good weekend
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - weakness into the weekend

US equities remain moderately lower, and with the hourly cycle set to see a bearish MACD cross at some point next Monday, there should be increasingly downward pressure into the weekly close, not least after a giant hyper ramp from 1867 to 1993. Equity bears need sub 1970s for a net weekly decline.


sp'60min

Summary

*note the lower bollinger on hourly chart.. currently at 1881.. and rising rapidly. That will probably be around the 1940/30s by next Tue/Wed.
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All things considered, the market should see lower levels in the closing hour.

After all, how many bears are there left to cover? Instead, I'd imagine some of the rats will want to make a run for the exit door.

stay tuned


3.17pm.. chop chop.. sp'1983... 0.5% below the earlier high.

The sp' is set for a net weekly gain of around 0.5%.. which is a pretty bizarre thought, considering the Monday and Tuesday carnage.


3.30pm.. We've spent the better part of two days stuck around sp'1980.

As things are... outlook remains unchanged... increasing weakness.. with downside to 1945/30 in first half of next week.

... yours truly will have eyes on AAPL... 109s... the 108/107s would be a bonus entry.
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3.35pm.. notable gains in the VIX, +10% @ 28.71... . kinda crept higher without me noticing.


3.37pm.. sp'1979..a few of the rats are starting to JUMP.


3.44pm.. A weekly VIX close in the 30s now looks due... with sp'1975/70.

Overall.... an incredible week.................. back at the close.