Permabear Doomster

Friday, 28 August 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities saw some distinct weakness in the late afternoon, but still closed significantly higher for the second consecutive day, sp +47pts @ 1987 (intra high 1989). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.4% and 1.8% respectively. Near term outlook offers further cooling to the 1940s.. before resuming upward >2000.

sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

A second powerful day of gains, although with a very wild afternoon.

Broadly, the market looks set to challenge the sp'2000 threshold within the next 1-3 trading days. From there.. an attempt to break above the key resistance zone of 2050/70 looks a given by mid September.

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a little more later...

Thursday, 27 August 2015

VIX continues to cool

With US equities closing significantly higher for a second day, the VIX cooled lower for the third consecutive day, settling -13.9% @ 26.10, but notably well above the intraday low of 24.49.

VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

Regardless of any equity weakness across tomorrow/Monday, the VIX looks set for the 20 threshold. If the sp'2050/70 zone it hit, then the mid teens are probable.. before next opportunity of a major surge into the 40s.. and beyond.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

Summary

*closing hour.... another crazy wild swing from a low of 1948 to the 1980s, again indicative that this market remains very volatile.
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... and another crazy day come to a close. Is it the weekend yet?
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I had been looking for a morning peak somewhere in the sp'1960/80 zone.. the extra few hours of upside was surprising even to me.

Clearly, we're due a retrace of at least part of the 122pt ramp from 1867... and despite the closing hour ramp, the market looks very vulnerable early tomorrow/Monday.

*I am on the sidelines overnight... seeking to pick up another AAPL-long from the $109s.
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more later... on the VIX