VIX continues to cool

With equities closing significantly higher, the VIX continued to cool, settling -15.8% @ 30.32 (intra low 28.67). The near term outlook offers a multi-day equity bounce, and that will likely equate to VIX falling to the 22/19 zone.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

VIX looks set to cool into the low 20s, along with equities rallying for at least a few days.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes have broken the downward trend, with the sp +72pts @ 1940 (intra low 1880). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by a powerful 2.9% and 2.4% respectively. There is clarity in the near term, with a secure double floor of sp'1867, first target upside is the 2000 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

Suffice to say... net daily gains. The collapse wave from last Wednesday afternoon (2096), has concluded with a double floor of 1867.

So.. 6 days... 229pts.
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Now that a floor appears secure... how high a bounce?

Best guess.. upside to at least the psy' level of 2000.

Where it gets tricky is whether the market can keep pushing into the next FOMC (Sept 17'th). If so.. then we could battle as high as the 2050/70 zone.

From there.. the bears should have a high chance at smashing the market lower into end Sept/early Oct.

The sp'1725/00 zone - a 38% retrace of the giant wave from Oct'2011 (1074/2134), is target.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - net daily gains

Unlike yesterday's train wreck closing hour, US equities are set to close with significant gains. Equity bulls should be seeking a daily close above the hourly 10MA - currently @ 1905. The VIX looks vulnerable to losing the 30s. There is notable weakness in the metals, Gold -$12, with Silver -3.5%


sp'60min

GLD, daily

Summary

Well, its been a rather incredible six trading days.. but it seems fair to say we have a secure double floor of sp'1867.

The issue now is whether the rally will last just a few days... rolling lower into end month (Monday)... or can keep going all the way into the next FOMC (Sept 17'th).

Considering the price action of the past few years, an overly high and extended bounce/rally into mid Sept' looks viable.

Targets.. Primary sp'2000
Secondary.. 2050/70 zone.. where there are an absolute truck load of aspects of resistance.

On no reasonable outlook does sustained action >2080 look viable for some months.

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*I will hold long-AAPL overnight... unless there is some bizarre spike higher in the closing hour to the $110s.
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3.05pm... It is notable that the hourly upper bollinger has stopped falling, and is now around 1950s... that will be a valid target for tomorrow.
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3.11pm.. HUGE waves of buying... over and over...

Mainstream starting to catch on.... we have a floor... we're headed higher.


3.12pm.. sp'1930s...  monstrous short-stop cascade underway.. as bears are being kicked out....

This will make for one of the bigger net daily gains... EVER.

VIX set to lose the 30s.. into the close.