VIX higher for a second day

With US equities settling moderately lower, the VIX battled higher for a second consecutive day, settling +6.1% @ 13.81. Near term outlook is mixed, with threat of minor cooling into equity opex this Friday. However, VIX looks set for the upper teens by end month.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Little to add.

Key resistance remains the mid 14s. Until we see a daily close in the VIX 15s, ... there is no clarity for the equity bears.

*I remain long-VIX, seeking another exit in the 16/17s... but that doesn't look likely until next week.
--

more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -5pts @ 2096 (intra high 2103). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.2% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, with viable upside to the sp'2110/20s.. before significant downside after the next opex.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, a fair bit of moderate chop... but clearly.. nothing for the equity bears to get excited about.
-

I widened the rising trend on the hourly cycle.. to enclose the closing candle. On balance, we're likely to claw at least somewhat higher across the next day or two.

To be clear.. I do NOT expect the sp'500 (never mind some of the weaker indexes) to break new historic highs in the near/mid term.

--
more later.. on the VIX at 6pm EST

3pm update - holding above rising support

The sp'500 has held rising support @ 2094... and looks set to claw upward into the close. Rising trend is highly suggestive that by late Thursday the market will have been trading at least above 2115. VIX is holding minor gains of 6% in the 13.80s, having been unable to clear the 14 threshold.


sp'60min

Summary

Little to add.

We have a clear break above resistance yesterday.. and today... we've held above it.

Any daily close <2097.... is a clear break of trend.
<2094... a fail of the 50dma... and new intraday low...

so... lets see how another hour in this casino plays out.
-

notable weakness: DIS -1.9% in the $106s.. daily chart looks ugly to the big $100 threshold.. by end month.
-

3.06pm... Things remain very marginal.... but clearly.. no sig' downside today... its mostly weak chop.

VIX +7.0% in the 13.90s... .a daily close in the low 14 would be interesting, but still.. that is below key resistance (14.50s)