VIX reversal candle

With equities breaking above resistance of sp'2108 in the morning, the VIX was crushed, seeing a momentary spike low of 10.88 - the lowest level since July 2014, settling -3.8% @ 12.51. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will depend on whether the bears can attain a daily close under the 200dma in the low sp'2070s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the daily candle is a classic hollow red reversal candle. The added hyper-spike adds to the notion that this was an exhaustion move.
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The morning spike to 10.88 was another one of those periodic bizarro VIX prints. The daily close in the mid 12s was a minor consolation to those currently long volatility.

*I remain long-VIX, am trying to be patient, seeking an exit in the 15/16 zone.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +6pts @ 2099 (intra high 2112). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain after today's break above resistance. Until there is a daily close under the 200dma in the low 2070s, equity bears can't be overly confident.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, a little mild chop.
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... and another day in the twisted casino comes to a close.

Clearly.. the morning gains were a major problem to the bearish case. The intraday cooling was useful, but still, the daily close a touch under the sp'2100 threshold was only a minor consolation to the bears.

Closing under sp'2100..... lucky.

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awaiting earnings from TSLA...

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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - stop the boat

It has been a real battle in the US market, with an intraday decline from sp'2112 to 2097. From a pure technical perspective, bears should be desperate for a daily close under the 2100 threshold. VIX is set for a net daily decline, but even the mid 12s would be well above the morning spike low of 10.88.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

A rough day... but more so.. for those in Disneyland.

Very difficult to call today's close. The smaller hourly cycles have potential for the equity bears, but there is no definitive MACD bearish cross yet... and that does not look possible in the closing hour.

*awaiting earnings from TSLA at the close. Another loss is expected, but hey.. that must be good for a 10% AH jump? After all, when do momo/hysteria related stocks need profits, its 2015 after all.

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Wonka sums up today...


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back at the close