VIX making a push higher

With equity indexes settling lower for the second consecutive trading day, the VIX was finally able to hold some gains (if minor), settling +3.6% @ 12.56 (intra high 13.55). Near term outlook offers the VIX 16/17s, the 20s look difficult... not least if the sp'500 can't get any daily closes <2050.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*closing hour saw the VIX get whacked lower, as equities bounced from sp'2089 to 2098.
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Despite the closing hour weakness, today is day'1 UP of a new cycle. Last weeks high of 16.27 looks a valid target this week. Whether we max out in the 16s, 17s.. or even somewhat higher.. difficult to say.

*I remain long-VIX... seeking an exit in the 16/17s later this week.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed broadly lower, sp -5pts @ 2098. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.3% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers further downside, at least to the recent low of sp'2063. However, any daily closes under the (still rising) 200dma will offer stronger downside to the 2050/25 zone.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour saw some moderate recovery, but broadly, it makes little difference.
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... a second day for the equity bears.

Those seeking new historic highs in the sp'500 in the near term are facing a real problem right now. This is reflected in the bigger weekly/monthly cycles, but also in a great many individual stocks.

Today, with AAPL losing the $119s, we saw a clear warning signal that one of the more stable stocks has decisively broken.

.. the rest of the market looks set to follow across the next two months.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a second day for the bears

The Friday high of sp'2114 is fading away, and with technical breaks all over the place, a target of sp'2060 by the Friday close is valid.. and that should equate to VIX 16/17s. With the USD +0.1% in the DXY 97.40s, commodities remain under pressure, Gold -$8, whilst Oil is -3.6% in the $45s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Clearly, we're set to close lower for the second consecutive day, now its a case of how low can the current cycle go.

Dow 17K remains an obvious target.. and that would equate to sp'500 somewhere in the 2050/25 zone.
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Considering the current 5/15min cycles, renewed weakness into the close looks due.
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3.35pm.. sp'2090.. with VIX 13s... a little tiresome.. but anyway... day'2 down... the week has started fine for the bears.

back at the close.