VIX crushed for a second day

With equities climbing for the second consecutive day, the VIX continued to get crushed lower, settling -7.0% @ 12.50 (intra low 11.85). Near term outlook is mixed, with the hourly cycle offering a VIX rally across Thurs/Friday, but with sp'2100s closed above... the broader equity trend looks bullish into August.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

Suffice to say, I'm surprised.. and bemused to see the VIX back in the 12s... even flashing lower to the 11s on the FOMC announcement.

All things considered, VIX is now on the very low side.. as some might say... the only way from here is up...yes?

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*I remain long VIX from the low 14s.. which now looks a fair way higher! I am confident though I'll claw my way out of that position though.. net higher.

I remain seeking to be broadly long-VIX into Sept/Oct.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed broadly higher, sp +15pts @ 2108. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.7% and 0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is mixed, with the hourly cycles offering a down wave across Thurs/Friday, but the daily close >sp'2100 (where the 50dma is lurking) is a rather bullish signal for early August.


sp'60min

Summary

*awaiting earnings from the momo/hysteria stock that is the FB
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For the bears... a very disappointing day.. and that is probably under-stating it.

Not only did the market manage to close higher for the second consecutive day, but above the psy' level of sp'2100.. and decisively above the 50dma.

Maybe the bears will be lucky and get some kind of weakness across the remainder of the week/end month, but really.. that is mere hope right now.

*I hold VIX-long... but my entry in the low 14s is looking a long way up. Crazy!
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4.04pm.. FB earnings... better than expected... naturally the stock gets knocked lower... so far.. intra low of $90.60

Hmm
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Meanwhile... with a marginal miss in Whole Foods.. the market is upset with it...

Right back to the levels from Oct'2014... when sp' was a mere 1820.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a close above 2100

Despite the Fed still unwilling to give any hints that rates will be raised at the Sept' FOMC meeting, the market is holding moderate gains, with a new cycle high of sp'2109. Equity bears should be desperate for a daily close under the 50dma @ sp'2100... along with VIX back in the 13s.


sp'daily5

VIX'60min'2

Summary

Well, despite some notable chop... the market is so far holding the gains, with a daily close <2100 now looking very difficult... as are VIX 13s.

It remains the case that from a pure cyclical perspective, we're on the high side, and it utterly bemuses me why anyone would be buying (and not selling) above the sp'2100 threshold.. considering the past few months of price action.

Regardless of the close...  not the best of days for yours truly... but I've had far worse.

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notable weakness (as is usually the case) coal miners, CNX, -7.2% in the $16.40s. Recent earnings were dire.. and offers little hope for a long time to come.
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*FB earnings at the close... so that is something to watch for.


3.15pm.. chop chop.. sp'2108.... and clearly.. a daily close <2100 is out of range... which is a major victory for the bulls.

As things are.. with VIX in the mid 12s... it remains the case that it really can't go much lower anyway... right?


3.30pm.. sp'2108... VIX 12.30s....     Hmm.  

Seriously... who wants to buy here?

Oh well.. FB due at the close... maybe they'll spike it to the big $100 threshold.. and then cool from there.