VIX significantly cools

With equities settling significantly higher, +25pts @ sp'2093, the VIX was in cooling mode, -13.8% @ 13.44. Near term outlook is for renewed equity weakness to the sp'2050s, which should equate to VIX 17/18s.


VIX, 60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

A pretty major daily decline for the VIX.

I was open to a decline to the 14s today, but the mid 13s were somewhat surprising
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*I am long VIX from 14.15... having exited the previous day from 16.10. I am seeking to be broadly long VIX into Sept/early Oct.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +25pts @ 2093. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 2.7% and 0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed weakness... once the FOMC is out of the way... with a move to the sp'2050s... and VIX 17/18s.


sp'60min

Summary

So, the 5 day run to the downside concludes with a rather strong net daily gain into the sp'2090s.

Yet.. a bounce is likely all that today was.

We have the FOMC tomorrow afternoon at 2pm... but once that is out of the way, the equity bears should regain control... and push the market lower into end month.

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*I hold VIX-long overnight from the low 14s. Seeking an exit in the 17/18s.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - a bounce for the bull maniacs

After five (ohh the humanity!) consecutive net daily declines, the sp'500 is set for a significant net daily gain... somewhere in the 2085/95 zone. Sustained price action above the 2100 threshold looks overly difficult, and considering the bigger weekly/monthly cycles... renewed weakness into end month looks probable.


sp'60min

vix'60min

Summary

*note the upper bollinger on the hourly cycle...  that was always a 'worse case' for those shorting during today.

All things considered though, today is likely just a bounce.. within a broader down trend.
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*TWTR earnings at the close.... it will make for some entertainment. Something to look for, user numbers.. which TWTR is going to struggle to increase.