VIX remains very subdued

With US equities breaking a new cycle high for the eighth consecutive day, the VIX remained under pressure, settling +2.5% @ 12.25 (intra low 11.71). Near term outlook offers a moderate equity retrace, back to the sp'2100 threshold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

A day of minor chop. Opening black-fail candle... with a new cycle low of 11.71, but then a moderate rally into the close as equities cooled a little.

Broadly.. things really don't get remotely interesting until VIX can attain a daily close in the 14s. That will open the door to a brief foray into the 15/16 gap zone.

From there (and that assume we even get that high)... VIX will likely cool into early August.

VIX 20s look unlikely until the latter half of August.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +1pt @ 2128 (intra high 2132). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.4% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a retrace, but with price action as it is, even the sp'2100 threshold looks a stretch. Regardless, broader upside into August.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour was notably weak, with a clear break of short term rising trend.
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Little to add.. on what was a very tedious and dull Monday..aside from the action in the precious metals.. and the
related mining stocks.

A retrace to sp'2100 looks due. Whether the decline can fill the lower gap of sp'2080... very difficult to say. Bears could do with some 'spooky news' from Greece.
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*I remain short the market via a small block of VIX, seeking the 15s... but that won't be easy.. unless sp'2090/85.
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Awaiting IBM earnings.. due at the close

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - are we closed yet?

US equities remain in algo-bot melt mode, with the sp +4pts, having earlier hit 2132.. a mere 0.1% from a new historic high. VIX remains extremely subdued, +1% @ 12.06. Metals and Oil are both very weak, as King dollar looks vulnerable to breaking into the DXY 100s by late summer.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*earnings at the close... IBM
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Little to add.. on what has been a pretty tedious day.

I can only hope we'll see some more dynamic price action as the week proceeds!

notable weakness, Gold/Silver miners. GDX -9.1%... utter sector devastation... second only to the coal miners.
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back at the close