VIX turns higher into the close

With equities breaking new cycle highs (sp'2111), the VIX was still on the slide, settling -4.5% @ 13.27 (intra low 12.90). Near term outlook offers an equity wave lower, which should equate to VIX 15/16s. Broadly, VIX looks set to remain subdued into early August.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*closing hour price action in both the VIX and equities was a likely hint of 'Wednesday trouble'.
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A move higher to the gap zone in the 15/16s looks probable for Wed/Thursday.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.. and probably until the latter half of August.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately higher, sp +9pts @ 2108 (intra high 2111). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.1% and +0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is offering a wave lower to around sp'2080... along with VIX 15/16s. From there, renewed upside into next week.. and probably all the way into early August.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour, a distinct touch of weakness, offering a hint of tomorrow.
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For the bears... the fourth consecutive lousy day... with the market having ramped from a double floor sp'2044 to 2111.... and VIX cooling from 20.05 to 12.90. Pretty incredible how fast the market can get super complacent.

Holding to a retracement down to around sp'2080.. with VIX 15s... maybe 16s.. briefly.

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more later.. on the VIX

3pm update - tedious Tuesday

US equities have managed to claw another point higher to sp'2110. Cyclically, the market is still due to break lower within 1-2 trading hours... with Yellen a very valid excuse tomorrow morning. Regardless of any weakness tomorrow, the broader trend still looks bullish into early August.. before things might finally get 'interesting'.


sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

Well.. the market sure is taking its time in exhausting this up wave.

From a pure cyclical perspective.. this market is due to break lower... and by the Wed' close, there will be very strong support around 2080.

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*I am on the sidelines. having dropped INTC-long near the open. If I'm correct about Wed' weakness... INTC is going to really struggle tomorrow... and if <29.30.. it would bode badly for the market reaction to earnings.
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3.07pm. sp' 2111... it almost appears we're in algo-bot melt mode.

Regardless... we're still due a down wave... with the Yellen tomorrow.



3.28pm.. Well.. still the same....  VIX is back above 13.00 though... with sp'2111.

Bulls arguably getting an opportunity to exit into strength... ahead of the Yellen.

Downside target remains 2080.. but I realise that is a full 1.5% lower.. and that sure feels a long way down right now.. and probably out of range for tomorrow.

So.. maybe any down cycle will drag out into Thursday.. .before rallying on Friday.
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