VIX collapses into the weekend

With equities seeing another swing, this time to the upside, the VIX was ground lower into the weekend, settling -15.6% @ 16.86. Near term outlook is offering broad equity upside into August, with the VIX set to cool to the low teens.. perhaps 12/11s.. before sustained 20s.. or even 30s in Sept/Oct.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*net weekly gain of 0.2%.
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Certainly, the market saw some significant volatility this week, and we even saw the VIX briefly (as in minutes) break above the key 20 threshold.

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The bigger VIX weekly cycle is offering a second consecutive spiky top candle... and that bodes for further cooling into next month.

What is rather exciting though is that the next VIX up cycle - probably beginning after mid August, should see much higher levels.. at least to the 25/30 zone.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed the week with significant gains, sp +25pts @ 2076. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into August, so long as the Greek banks reopen next week.. which should placate the angry populace for at least a few weeks.


sp'60min

Summary

... and a particularly roller coaster week comes to a close.

Frankly, I'm pretty burnt out... and I know many are dizzy after the price swings this week.

What should be clear... we have a double floor of sp'2044, which looks increasing secure... along with VIX maxing out at 20.05.

Best guess: broad upside into August, at least to the sp'2110/20s. Whether the market can see a mini blow off top.. somewhere in the 2150/2200 zone... difficult to say.

Considering the recent price action, new historic highs - even in the stronger sp'500/Dow, look difficult.

For the moment, I won't be short anything... and will merely take occasional minor long positions.
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Thanks for the comments this week.. well.. most of them.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week

3pm update - net weekly gains

Despite some significant down waves this week, most US indexes are (somewhat surprisingly) set for net weekly gains. VIX is reflecting a market that is increasingly confident into the weekend, -16% in the 16.70s. USD remains moderately weak, -0.6% in the DXY 95.90s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly

Summary

It has been a long week, and barring some closing hour news... I will be back at the close.
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notable strength: AAPL +3.1% in the $123s.

weakness: miners, GDX -1.6%... despite Gold trading flat.