VIX battles toward the key 20 threshold

With equities resuming lower, the VIX was naturally on the rise, settling +2.1% @ 17.15 (intra high 18.95). Near term outlook is for further equity downside to the sp'2040/30s, which should equate to VIX breaking into the low 20s.. if briefly.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*the closing daily black-fail candle would normally bode in favour to the equity bulls, but on this occasion, I will dismiss it. VIX 20s look due.. before the current up cycle is complete.
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Suffice to add, a minor net gain for the VIX, having cooled from the opening high of 18.95.

The low 20s look due in the current cycle, before equities can have a sustained bounce into August.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -8pts @ 2068 (intra low 2058). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.5% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is for further downside to the 2040/30s.. with VIX 20/21s. A key cycle low looks due, with renewed upside into early August.


sp'daily5

Summary

*closing hour.. a lot of chop...with some degree of a short-stop cascade..  annoying those bears holding short overnight.
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An interesting.. and busy start to the week...

Further weakness looks due tomorrow... with the Sunday night futures low - equiv' to 2044, highly probable.
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4.12pm.. For no apparent reason, price action has jumped immediately after the close... sp +5pts... with VIX cooling to the low 17s. More sporadic Greek headlines... no doubt.

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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities are moderately weak, and look set for further declines into the daily close. Regardless of whether the 200dma (sp'2055) is broken by the close, the 2040/30s look due tomorrow.. along with VIX in the 20s. USD +0.2% in the DXY 96.30s. Oil is in collapse mode, -6.9% in the $52s.


sp'daily5

sp'weekly2

Summary

*Best case for the equity bears in the immediate term remains the giant 2K threshold - as seen most clearly on the weekly cycle.
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notable weakness: INTC -2.2% in the $29.80s.... fast approaching target of the low $29s.

..updates into the close...


3.12pm.. chop chop.. sp'2062..  VIX 17.90s.....  another wave lower still looks due.

notable weakness: Oil, -7.0%



3.33pm... a minor short-stop cascade.. sp -10pts @ 2065.

It remains the case that VIX rapidly cools on any kind of equity bounce... 


3.44pm... time to roll lower again.... sp -11pts... VIX +5% in the 17.60s.