VIX claws higher into the weekend

With equities closing moderately weak, the VIX settled +4.3% @ 16.79 (intra high 17.48). Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be largely dependent on the referendum result. If the Greeks vote 'no', equities look set for another wave lower, with the VIX likely breaking into the low 20s.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*a net weekly VIX gain of 20.5%
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Most notable aspect of the week, VIX back in the upper teens, coming close to the big 20 threshold, with a Monday spike high of 19.80.

The bigger weekly cycle is offering increased volatility into the late summer/early autumn.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -0.6pts @ 2076 (intra high 2085). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will depend almost entirely on the result of the Greek referendum. A 'no' vote would bode for another 2-3% lower next Monday.


sp'60min

Summary

... and the short week comes to a close!

Equity bears achieved a fair few things this week, with VIX 19s, the biggest one day equity drop in over a year, and a rather significant break lower in WTCI Oil to the $56s.
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Of course, now its a case of how the Greeks vote.

A yes vote.. and it seems that the market will rally.

A no vote.. and we'll surely see a major wave lower across Sunday night.. with a major gap lower. The loss of the 200dma of sp'2054 would be a major problem.. and offer the big 2K threshold. Right now.. few in the mainstream are considering that scenario.

My guess? A 'no', but then... that is probably wishful thinking.

Regardless of the market/Greek nonsense...  have a good weekend!
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening... to wrap up the week

3pm update - weakness into the holiday weekend

US equities remain moderately weak, and look set to slip somewhat further as some of the rats will want to exit into the long weekend, with great uncertainty about how the Greek referendum will pan out. Despite a slightly weaker USD, commodities are weak, Gold -$4, with Oil -0.5%


sp'60min

R2K, daily

Summary

*there is particular weakness in the R2K, -0.8% @ 1246. Price structure is a clear bear flag.. having broken today... downside is the big 1200 threshold.. around 4% lower...  would be suggestive of sp'2K.
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Well, its been a VERY busy week... not least after the initial Sunday night drama.

The closing hour will largely be all about traders positioning for the long weekend. I would imagine the vast majority of those hitting buttons will be inclined to the sell side.

Seriously.. who wants to go long into the weekend?
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updates into the close...
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3.12pm... equities starting to weaken... sp -3pts.

Meanwhile.. on clown finance TV...

Gartman 'probably a yes vote'

So... then the result will be a no, yes?
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3.28pm... Somewhat bizarrely.. sp' turns fractionally positive. Who the hell is buying?


3.34pm.. increasingly choppy... . sp' back to -2pts....

VIX is confirming the weekend concern... +7.8% in the 17.30s.


3.42pm... sp -2pts....  VIX still clawing upward... 17.40s...