VIX whacked into the close

With equities closing moderately mixed, the VIX remained subdued, settling -5.4% @ 14.47 (intra high 15.74). Near term equity outlook remains weak, with the bigger weekly VIX cycle offering the 17/18s as a viable capitulation spike high.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*VIX was duly whacked lower in the brief 15mins of AH trade.. to settle at the low of day. Its the sort of thing that would normally happen on a sleepy Friday afternoon.
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Despite a fourth day of declines for some equity indexes, the VIX could not hold the earlier high of 15.74 - the highest level in 5 weeks, with a rather typical late day cooling.

At some point in the coming months the VIX is going to explode into the 20s (if not the 30s.. if sp'500 <2K), but that certainly does not look viable in the current up cycle.

Next realistic chance of VIX 20s appears no earlier than mid/late July.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed somewhat mixed, sp +0.8pts @ 2080 (intra low 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -0.3%. Near term outlook offers further weakness to the 200dma (2046 and rising), but that will not be easy as the USD remains in a cooling phase.


sp'60min

Summary

*closing hour was a little weak, but clearly, nothing significant. It does keep open the door to renewed weakness tomorrow.
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So, a bit of a 'moderately mixed' close... sp'500 managing to close fractionally higher.


meanwhile...

TGT...  messy situation...

No buybacks.... market ain't so happy.
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more later... on the VIX

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities are holding minor gains, sp +3pts @ 2082. Equity bears should be content with any daily close <2080. First resistance remains the big 2100 threshold. The USD continues to cool, -0.2% in the DXY 95.10s. Gold is set to close higher for the second consecutive day,+$4, although Silver is lagging, -0.1%


sp'60min

sp'daily5

Summary

*the smaller 15/60min equity cycles are both offering a closing hour rollover, which in theory should be the case.. if we're going to see a cycle low by end week.
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It remains a bit of a confusing mess.

The daily/weekly cycles are still suggestive of further weakness.. lead lower by the Transports.

Overall, the threat remains of another 'dumb rally' into early July... not least helped via a cooling USD. How long until earnings for some of the big intl' stocks are upgraded when DXY 92/90 in a few weeks?

What is clear... the mainstream is getting increasingly twitchy about downside this summer/early autumn.
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notable gains in energy prices, Nat' gas +4.9%, with Oil +2.7%.   Bullish US consumer?
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3.28pm... indexes rolling over... as expected...

Ohh lookie...

Another 5bn to buy back stock.. to prop up the share price. Western capitalism at its finest, right?
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3.34pm.. Somewhat amusing to see clown TV host getting twitchy.. as some indexes are set to close lower for the fourth consecutive day.

How can Yellen let this horror continue? 
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3.46pm.. Eyes on Intel (INTC)... a net daily decline.. would be the 7th in a row... that'd bode pretty bearish for main market. Near term target remains the $29s.