VIX fails to breakout

Equity indexes saw moderate weakness across the day, but it was not enough to push the VIX into the 14s (intra high 13.99), settling +0.3% @ 13.31. Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be largely dependent upon whether the USD will cool into June/July.. or break back above the giant DXY 100 threshold.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

Summary

*a daily black-fail candle.. with a bearish spike, it certainly bodes more in favour to the equity bulls.
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A day of major disappointment for the equity bears, as entirely reflected in the VIX.

The big VIX 20 threshold looks out of range for some weeks. If the USD cools across June/July, equities will battle upward, and the notion of VIX 20s can be dropped until Aug/Sept.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -2pts @ 2120 (intra low 2112). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.9% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook is increasingly uncertain. If the USD has maxed out in the DXY 97s, then renewed equity upside will be likely across June.. and probably into July.


sp'60min

Summary

*a closing hour of very minor chop, absolutely nothing for the bears to be pleased about.
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A tiresome Thursday.

A day when the equity bears failed to show any real downside power... as reflected in a VIX that was unable to break into the 14s.

The transports remains exceptionally weak, but as ever.. it is just one index.. and the broader market remains well within its primary upward trend.
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more later...on the lowly VIX

3pm update - tiresome Thursday

For the equity bears, it has been a tiresome Thursday, as most indexes are now battling to turn positive by the close. VIX is failing to show any upside power, and is now vulnerable to a red close. USD remains in cooling mode, -0.4% @ DXY 97. Gold +$2. Oil has turned positive, swinging from -2% to +0.2%.


sp'60min

Trans, daily

Summary

*Transports remains significantly weak, but certainly... the broader market isn't following.
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Little to add.

A failed down wave, any move above sp'2123/24 would negate what hope there is for the bears.
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3.38pm.. The chop continues... price structure is still a bear flag (just)... but really... it'd seem everything is now dependent on how the market interprets tomorrow's econ-data.. along with overnight Asian markets.
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