Friday, 1 May 2015

VIX rapidly cools into the weekend

With equities climbing across the day, the VIX was naturally in cooling mode, settling -12.7% @ 12.70. Near term outlook is moderately mixed, with viable equity weakness across Mon/Tue, but with the broader upward trend set to continue across May... and probably at least into the next FOMC of mid June.


VIX'60min



VIX'daily3



VIX'weekly



Summary

*a net weekly gain of 3.3%, but with a bearish spiky top candle, it is indicative that equity bears are still unable to sustain downward price pressure.
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The Thursday high of 15.25 already now looks a fair way higher. VIX remains generally subdued, the big 20 threshold looks out of range until at least mid June.
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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed significantly higher, sp +22pts @ 2108. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 1.7% and 0.7% respectively. Near term outlook still offers weakness next Mon/Tuesday, but the broader trend remains bullish.. at least into June. A weaker USD and higher Oil prices will no doubt help.


sp'60min



Summary

.. and another week comes to a close.

Without question, the momo chasers had a particularly rough week... YELP, LNKD, and of course... TWTR. By some minor miracle.. I had the sense to avoid the latter... but I had been tempted.

Thanks to those who said hello this week... it makes all the difference!

Have a good weekend everyone.
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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening.. to wrap up the week

3pm update - net weekly declines

US equities look set for significant net daily gains, but will still be net lower across the week (sp -0.5%). Metals remain broadly weak, Gold -$8, with SIlver -0.3% . Oil is -0.9%, and set for further weakness in the first half of next week.


sp'60min


sp'weekly


Summary

Well, its the closing hour of what has been a pretty interesting week.

notable strength: airlines, DAL/UAL, both higher by 3%, as oil prices are cooling
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*I continue to have eyes on Oil, the Euro, and the BABA... and will strongly consider those next week.

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back at the close... to wrap up the week