VIX climbs into the weekend

With the US market somewhat spooked by an AH drop in the China market, the VIX opened higher, and climbed into early afternoon, settling +10.2% @ 13.89 (intra high 15.02). Near term outlook is uncertain, and will be seemingly dependent upon how China trades next Monday.


VIX'60min

VIX'daily3

VIX,weekly

Summary

*a net weekly gain of a rather significant 10.4%, but still in the sub teens.
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It is notable that at the current rate of turn, the VIX weekly will be offering a possible bullish cross in about 3 weeks time. Certainly, the equity bears will have a better opportunity from mid May onward.. a seasonally weaker time of year.

For the moment, the key VIX 20 threshold looks out of range at least until mid May.

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more later.. on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equity indexes closed significantly lower, sp -23pts @ 2081 (intra low 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is now very uncertain, not least with the China market set to see a major opening Monday decline of 5% or so.


sp'60min

Summary

... and yet another week in the world's most twisted casino comes to a close.

The two week run for the bulls is over.. .with all indexes seeing somewhat significant net weekly declines.

However, until the recent low of sp'2039 is taken out.. this is much the same style of price action that we've been seeing since the start of the year.

Have a good weekend.
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*the usual bits and pieces to wrap up the week... across the evening...

3pm update - a week for the bears

Equities remain broadly weak, with significant declines across all the main indexes. The sp'500 is set for a net weekly decline of at least 1%. VIX is confirming some moderate market concern about the China market.. and a possible GREXIT in May, +17% in the 14.80s.


sp'daily5

sp'60min

Summary

The daily candle is a pretty fiercely bearish one, but still... we've seen many such significant down days this year.. and yet the market is STILL breaking new historic highs.

Seasonally, the bears don't have much chance of sustained multi-week down cycle until at least early May.
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Well, its the closing hour of a week, and regardless of the exact close.. it will have been one for the bears.
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notable strength: NFLX +0.7%.. which is pretty incredible, considering the monstrously huge Thursday gains, and with the main market as weak as it is, but hey... at a PE in the 250/275 range... whats not to like?
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3.22pm.. minor up cycle.. but there is hourly resistance at the 10 MA of sp'2088.. which looks out of range into the close.

NFLX rebuilding gains.. +1.7%...
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3.32pm.. short-stop cascade underway.. .sp'2080...