VIX cools into the Easter weekend

With US equities holding moderate gains for much of the day, the VIX remained subdued (intra low 14.27), settling -2.9% @ 14.67. Near term outlook offers a break of the sp'2039 low, which should be enough to break above the VIX double high of 17.19... into the low 20s.


VIX'daily3

VIX'weekly

Summary

*VIX saw a net weekly decline of -2.6%
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Little to add.

Even if the equity market can see another down wave next week - breaking the recent low of sp'2039, VIX will likely only be able to briefly break into the low 20s.

Things would only get interesting in VIX land on a break of the sp'500 200dma, which will be in the 2013/15 zone next week. Such a break would offer the sp'1960/40 zone... which would equate to VIX in the mid/upper 20s.. but that remains a very unlikely scenario.

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more later... on the indexes

Closing Brief

US equities closed moderately mixed, sp +7pts @ 2066 (intra high 2072). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.8% and +0.3% respectively. Near term outlook remains bearish, with the sp'2039 low set to be broken next Monday. The bigger issue is whether the 200dma will hold... although that has already failed for the Trans'.


sp'60min

Summary

*a stronger closing hour than I had expected, but still holding under the earlier high of sp'2072.
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.... and thus comes to a close.. another week in the twisted casino

The bigger weekly/monthly cycles remain 'moderately' in favour to the equity bears, at the very best.. there is viable downside to the sp'1960/40 zone. Frankly though, in the scheme of things, a 5% drop is nothing particularly exciting, and the market would rally pretty powerfully from any such decline.

Overall, a week for the equity bulls.

Have a good Easter weekend!

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*the usual bits and pieces across the evening to wrap up the week.

**I will post an early Friday update.. on the jobs data.. along with how the futures market reacts.

3pm update - weakness into the long weekend

US equities are holding moderate gains, but some selling into the weekly close looks due. VIX is reflecting no concern ahead of the Friday jobs data... when the market will be closed. Metals remain weak, Gold -$3. Oil is broadly weak, -0.9%.


sp'60min

sp'weekly2

Summary

*I highlight the bigger weekly cycle... its a mixed week. Yes, the equity bulls look set to achieve a net weekly gain.. but there is no clear turn.. and the bears can still be looking to break <2039 next Monday.
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Whilst US Sec' Kerry is boring most out of their minds with his arrogant claims to be in control of Iran.. which unless I'm mistaken, is a completely separate sovereign state of this planet...  equities look set for some weakness into the close.

A weekly close in the sp'2050s would be useful to the equity bears... along with VIX 15s.
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notable gains, DISCA +3.1%
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back at the close.. to wrap up the trading week.